Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Omaha, NE

000 
WGUS73 KOAX 222200
FFSOAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
447 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEC003-011-119-222345-
BOONE NE-MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-
447 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR
ANTELOPE...MADISON AND BOONE COUNTIES...

AT 445 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED WIDESPREAD 
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. NUMEROUS LOW LAND FLOODING 
HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE WARNED COUNTIES. THERE ARE ALSO NUMEROUS 
REPORTS OF WATER UP TO THE COUNTY ROADS AND IN SOME 
LOCATIONS...WATER IS OVER THE COUNTY ROADS IN LOW SPOTS. IN BOONE 
COUNTY...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT RAE CREEK IS OUT OF ITS 
BANKS IN PETERSBURG. IN ANTELOPE COUNTY...LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS 
REPORT THAT THE PARK IS FULL IN NELIGH. AS OF 430 PM...THE NORFOLK 
AIRPORT REPORTED A DAILY RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.62 INCHES. 

THE HEAVIEST BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE WARNED AREA 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MODERATE BANDS OF RAINFALL WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OAKDALE...
NORFOLK...NELIGH...MEADOW GROVE...ELGIN...CLEARWATER AND BATTLE CREEK

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE POWER OF FLOOD WATERS. ONLY A FEW INCHES OF
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER CAN QUICKLY CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN OMAHA.

LAT...LON 4148 9829 4152 9782 4174 9782 4175 9735
      4208 9736 4209 9784 4227 9783 4226 9830

$$

GRIFFIS

000 
WGUS73 KOAX 222349
FFSOAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
646 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

NEC003-011-119-222356-
BOONE NE-MADISON NE-ANTELOPE NE-
646 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR ANTELOPE...MADISON AND
BOONE COUNTIES...

ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES...HEAVY RAINS HAVE 
SUBSIDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARNED AREA THIS EVENING. SOME LOW LAND 
FLOODING CONTINUES AND WATER REMAINS OVER SOME COUNTY ROADS IN LOW 
LYING AREAS...BUT NO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS 
TIME. 

DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF AN 
UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT...OR BY AUTOMOBILE.


LAT...LON 4148 9829 4152 9782 4174 9782 4175 9735
      4208 9736 4209 9784 4227 9783 4226 9830

$$

GRIFFIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
229 PM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY ARE THE
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

CONVECTION CONTINUED TO FIRE IN THE NORTHERN CWA INTO THE
AFTERNOON AFTER A SOMEWHAT BUSY EARLY MORNING OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS CONVECTION IN
THE NORTH HAS PUSHED A COLD POOL SOUTH INTO THE OMAHA METRO AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING ALONG
THAT. SOUTH OF THIS OUTFLOW...TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINT NEAR 70. LATEST SPC MESOSCALE RUC DATA
SHOWED MIXED LAYER CAPES TOPPING 3000 J/KG IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
WITH WEAKENING CAP. SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS FIELD INCREASING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WILL WATCH THIS AREA
FOR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. IF
STORMS DO FIRE...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WOULD SUGGEST LARGE HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ONLY MODEST AROUND 25 TO
30 KTS...PULSE SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY MODE. BUT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD AND EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT LEAD TO POCKETS
OF SUFFICIENT HELICITY TO PRODUCE A BRIEF SPIN UP UNDER A
DEVELOPING UPDRAFT.

TO THE NORTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/FRONT...WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET
ACCELERATES AFTER DARK. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVERING
AROUND 2 INCHES. ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE THAT.
QUESTION WILL BE IF ONE IS NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLS
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.

RAIN WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE EAST THURSDAY MORNING...LEAVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF
MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT AS
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE INDUCES ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. AGAIN HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL A MINOR
THREAT.

FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MAKE A SOUTHERLY PUSH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
LEAVING THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION. HAVE KEPT CHANCES GOING AS FAR NORTH AS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR NOW...BUT THAT MAY BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. THEN
LINGERING PRECIP IN THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE END OF
THE RAIN FOR THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME
NEXT WEEK...MOST LIKELY TUESDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE AFFECTED GREATLY BY
CLOUDS/PRECIP. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE HOLDING IN THE MID 60S
UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND A SIMILAR REGIME IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY. IN FACT ETA MOS GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 71 FOR
OMAHA ON FRIDAY. HAVE NOT GONE THIS COOL...BUT HIGHS IN THE 70S
LOOK LIKELY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY AND MUCH OF THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT...PUSHING DEW POINTS AT LEAST INTO THE LOWER 60S IF NOT 50S.
MORNING LOWS COULD MIMIC THESE DEW POINT TEMPS BY SATURDAY MORNING
IF WE CAN GET RID OF THE CLOUD COVER. WARMING TREND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD PUT TEMPS
BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES...COOLER
EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMBINED WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL. WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY IFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD IN KOFK AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AT KLNK AND KOMA BEFORE 06Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

DERGAN/FOBERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-222200-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
1150 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WITH ADDITONAL STORMS DEVELOPING INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY LATE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
LIKELY WITH SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA...GENERALLY NORTH OF A COLUMBUS
TO AVOCA IOWA LINE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA LATE THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
SAME GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

FOBERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1013 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             4 SW ELGIN              41.94N 98.14W
08/22/2007  E0.75 INCH       ANTELOPE           NE   PUBLIC

&&

JEKLISH