River Flood Warning 59, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
519 PM CDT SUN AUG 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MCS HAS DEVELOPED EXPLOSIVELY THIS AFTN AND IS NOW TURNING ESE
TOWARD THE RICHEST SOURCE OF LOW LVL MOISTURE/CAPE OVER SE NEB AND
SW IA. ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH STORMS...MOVEMENT
APPEARS TO BE FAST ENOUGH TO REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS FLASH
FLOODING. IN FACT...THERE IS ENOUGH ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
MOVEMENT THAT THIS COULD BE THE EARLY STAGE OF A DERECHO. MAY BE
SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT BEHIND MAIN SYSTEM LATER TNGT AS LLJ PICKS UP
FROM THE SW...BUT MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IS WITH FIRST SYSTEM.

OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER AIR ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE
KS AND MO BORDERS EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND ALLOW EXPIRATION OF HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...NEW ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TMRW AS DEVELOPING
LOW IN SD BRINGS HOT AIR BACK INTO THE AREA ON GUSTY WINDS.

FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW...CDFNT WILL MAY SOME HEADWAY
BACK SOUTH TUE NIGHT INTO WED...THEN IS FORECAST TO HANG UP IN
OUR VICINITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS NOT
MUCH DOUBT ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH OUR AREA HANGING OUT
AT THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES.  THERE IS A LOT OF DOUBT
ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE FRONT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...WHETHER
IT IS MOVING NORTH OR SOUTH...AND WHERE AND WHEN TO LOCATE BEST
POPS.  THUS MOST OF THE FORECAST REFLECTS HOT BUT NOT EXTREME
TEMPERATURES AND POPS GENERALLY GREATER IN THE NORTH.  USED
HPC FRONTAL GUIDANCE FOR GENERAL PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF STRONG/SVR TSTMS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH
THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BRIEF VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW VSBYS.
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z...BUT SOLID LOOKING LINE WILL
NOT BE SAFE TO FLY THROUGH.  LNK IS ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE
STRONG LINE...AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SKIRT IT TO THE SOUTH.
LATER TNGT THERE MAY BE SOME FOG...BUT SHOULD NOT BE DENSE AS
RETURN FLOW PICKS UP TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.

IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ069-079-080-090-
     091.

&&

DEE/POLLACK

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