Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THEM INTO THE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SO THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS. SOME ADDITIONAL
MORNING CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AGAIN WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO. THE SPEED AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM/WRF IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FRONT. PREFER THE GFS SO WILL KEEP
50 PERCENT POPS SOUTH SATURDAY TAPERING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS SW VA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BROUGHT POPS TO 20 PERCENT
FOR SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST
COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNTIL
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY RIDGING TAKES OVER AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HEATING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ONLY IN THE TERRAIN AREAS BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS MAKE A DECISION TO TAKE POPS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  71  90  71  89  67 /  30  60  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    70  89  69  86  64 /  30  70  50  50  20
OAK RIDGE, TN            70  88  68  86  63 /  30  70  50  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   66  85  65  85  60 /  30  70  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
524 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-290930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
524 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007 /424 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...INCREASING THE
COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT DIFFERENT PLACES THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

GH

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