Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
240 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL. THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE LINE OF STORMS WILL BRING THEM INTO THE VALLEY THIS EVENING.
STORMS ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND SO THEY SHOULD DISSIPATE SOMETIME
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FRIDAY AGAIN LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW
FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS. SOME ADDITIONAL
MORNING CLOUDINESS MAY ALSO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AGAIN WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TOO. THE SPEED AND THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT WILL AFFECT
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM/WRF IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND NOT AS STRONG WITH THE FRONT. PREFER THE GFS SO WILL KEEP
50 PERCENT POPS SOUTH SATURDAY TAPERING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS SW VA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BROUGHT POPS TO 20 PERCENT
FOR SOUTHEAST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND UPPER TROUGH LIES ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST
COAST. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UNTIL
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY RIDGING TAKES OVER AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HEATING.
PRECIPITATION MAY BE CONFINED ONLY IN THE TERRAIN AREAS BUT WILL LET
LATER SHIFTS MAKE A DECISION TO TAKE POPS OUT OF THE VALLEYS. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS A
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  71  90  71  89  67 /  30  60  50  50  30
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN    70  89  69  86  64 /  30  70  50  50  20
OAK RIDGE, TN            70  88  68  86  63 /  30  70  50  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN   66  85  65  85  60 /  30  70  50  40  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
524 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-290930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
524 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007 /424 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...
EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...INCREASING THE
COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT DIFFERENT PLACES THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.

GH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

TNZ035-281700-
MORGAN-
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING MORGAN COUNTY...

AT 1205 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF FAIRFIELD GLADE....MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT DEERLODGE AND SUNBRIGHT.

WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS
OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS
ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
119 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RUSSELLVILLE            36.26N 83.20W
06/24/2007                   HAMBLEN            TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            A LARGE LIMB DOWNED A POWERLINE...KNOCKING OUT POWER IN
            RUSSELLVILLE. REPORTED BY HOLSTON ELECTRIC.

1003 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOORESBURG              36.35N 83.23W
06/24/2007                   HAWKINS            TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            ONE TREE DOWNED ONTO A POWERLINE IN MOORESBURG. REPORTED
            BY HOLSTON ELECTRIC.

1036 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SURGOINSVILLE           36.47N 82.86W
06/24/2007                   HAWKINS            TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            ONE TREE DOWNED ONTO A POWERLINE IN SURGOINSVILLE.
            REPORTED BY HOLSTON ELECTRIC.

&&

FERRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
129 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW MORRISTOWN         36.25N 83.33W
06/26/2007                   HAMBLEN            TN   PUBLIC

            AT APPROXIMATELY 420 PM EDT...ABOUT A DOZEN LARGE OAK
            TREES DOWNED ON BOATMANS RIDGE ROAD. REPORTED BY THE
            PUBLIC.

&&

FERRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
138 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW GREENBACK         35.63N 84.19W
06/27/2007                   LOUDON             TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            AT 425 PM EDT...A FEW TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED ALONG
            THE LOUDON AND MONROE COUNTY LINE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
            GREENBACK. REPORTED BY LOUDON UTILITES AND FORT LOUDON
            ELECTRIC.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BENTON                  35.18N 84.65W
06/27/2007                   POLK               TN   UTILITY COMPANY

            FROM APPROXIMATELY 530 PM TO 550 PM EDT...SEVERAL TREES
            AND POWERLINES DOWNED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF POLK
            COUNTY. REPORTED BY VOLUNTEER ELECTRIC.

&&

FERRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

TNZ099-281930-
HAMILTON-
223 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 219 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARRISON....MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF SODDY-DAISY...AND
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

DGS