Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 8, 2007Sherburne County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 8, 2007, 3:31 PM CDT for Sherburne County, Minnesota. It was in force for 26 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2007, 3:31 PM CDT (20:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2007, 3:57 PM CDT
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Twin Cities, MN
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Sherburne County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 8, 3:46 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Elk River, MN	4 TO 6 INCH TREE BRANCHES DOWN.
Jul 8, 3:46 PM CDT	HAIL 1.25	Elk River, MN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 15 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 8, 1:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 432 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -564 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2355 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 208 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 107 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KMPX 082031
SVRMPX
MNC141-082115-
/O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0230.070708T2031Z-070708T2115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SHERBURNE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 328 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
  MILES WEST OF ZIMMERMAN...OR ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  PRINCETON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ZIMMERMAN...
  ELK RIVER...

STAY INDOORS...AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4555 9378 4538 9383 4529 9351 4554 9353

$$

JPR

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 082057
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNC141-082107-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0230.000000T0000Z-070708T2115Z/
SHERBURNE MN-
357 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHERBURNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 4555 9378 4538 9383 4529 9351 4554 9353

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 8, 11:51 AM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 11:51 AM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH ABOUT AS FORECAST BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM DAKOTAS WAVE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL.TEMPS OVER PARTS OF WI MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAP STILL IN PLACE BUT THERE
AREA INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ABOUT THE TIME THAT FRONT ARRIVES. MOIST CONV WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND CAPE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE STORM. HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING A BIT TO THE NORTH. HAVE
HELD OFF ON POPS THIS AREA UNTIL AROUND 3 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../PREV DISCUSSION FROM 250 AM  /
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT CAPPING INVERSION /700 MB TEMPS AROUND
+13C/ TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
UNTIL LATER TODAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA/DAKOTAS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...AND AIDS IN THE
EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
DECREASED...WITH NAM/SREF/GFS ALL INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE POST-FRONTAL IN NATURE. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALIGNED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO UNFOLDS. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE STEAMY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAU CLAIRE TO FAIRMONT...WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAY YIELD PEAK INDICES NEARING 100 DEGREES.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY...WITH A REPRIEVE FROM
THE HOT CONDITIONS ARRIVING ON MONDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
TO BE CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE /
AREA OF MVFR CIG BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
VCNTY KRWF...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER REST OF
AREA. SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT BEST CHANCE
OF THIS SOUTH OF TAF SITES. POSSIBLE THUNDER VCNTY OF KMSP AND
KRWF WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY 21Z-00Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
09Z-12Z BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT THIS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 9:15 AM CDT, 6 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM...TO TWIN CITIES METRO...TO RICE LAKE
WISCONSIN LINE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HEAT INDICES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A FAIRMONT TO EAU
CLAIRE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 8, 2:09 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
209 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             ELK RIVER               45.33N 93.57W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 8, 2:32 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
232 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYOMING                 45.33N 93.00W
07/08/2007                   CHISAGO            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 8, 2:36 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
236 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             OTSEGO                  45.29N 93.61W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:11 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STILLWATER              45.06N 92.82W
07/08/2007                   WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN. ADULT BLOW OFF FEET BY WIND.

0244 PM     HAIL             FOREST LAKE             45.28N 92.99W
07/08/2007  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT I-35 REST AREA

0303 PM     HAIL             8 NW TURTLE LAKE        45.47N 92.26W
07/08/2007  E1.00 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:27 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

&&

MKM

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:28 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
328 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     AMERY                   45.30N 92.36W
07/08/2007                   POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 FT TREE AND BRANCHES DOWN.

0319 PM     HAIL             NEW GERMANY             44.88N 93.97W
07/08/2007  E0.88 INCH       CARVER             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MKM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 8, 12:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Wright	63 min
Jul 8, 1:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Sherburne	51 min
Jul 8, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Anoka, Isanti	58 min
Jul 8, 2:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Sherburne	27 min
Jul 8, 2:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Chisago	63 min
Jul 8, 2:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Anoka, Washington	46 min
Jul 8, 2:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Hennepin	57 min
Jul 8, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Carver, McLeod	59 min
Jul 8, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Anoka	61 min
Jul 8, 3:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Dakota, Ramsey, Washington	58 min
Jul 8, 6:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MPX	Nicollet	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.