Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 081944
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNC003-163-082015-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-070708T2015Z/
ANOKA MN-WASHINGTON MN-
243 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR WASHINGTON AND ANOKA COUNTIES...

AT 240 PM CDT...NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN FOREST LAKE.

AT 242 PM CDT...THE SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
FOREST LAKE...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE SCANDIA...OTISVILLE...MARINE
ON ST CROIX...LINO LAKES...HUGO...FOREST LAKE...CENTERVILLE AND
BLAINE.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4529 9302 4517 9330 4513 9306 4507 9278
      4528 9275

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 082011
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNC003-163-082021-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-070708T2015Z/
ANOKA MN-WASHINGTON MN-
311 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WASHINGTON AND ANOKA COUNTIES
EXPIRES AT 315 PM CDT...

SEVERE STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF COUNTY. HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORMS 
WERE DEVELOPING IN THE AREA...REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL 
WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4529 9302 4517 9330 4513 9306 4507 9278
      4528 9275

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1151 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.UPDATE...
COOL FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH ABOUT AS FORECAST BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
MID LEVEL DEBRIS FROM DAKOTAS WAVE WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE WEST CENTRAL.TEMPS OVER PARTS OF WI MAY BE
A LITTLE HIGHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAP STILL IN PLACE BUT THERE
AREA INDICATIONS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ABOUT THE TIME THAT FRONT ARRIVES. MOIST CONV WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AND CAPE WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE STORM. HIGHER DEEP LAYER SHEAR LAGGING A BIT TO THE NORTH. HAVE
HELD OFF ON POPS THIS AREA UNTIL AROUND 3 PM.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../PREV DISCUSSION FROM 250 AM  /
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA...WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BORDER. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS MAY SNEAK INTO THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES
THIS MORNING...BUT EXPECT CAPPING INVERSION /700 MB TEMPS AROUND
+13C/ TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA
UNTIL LATER TODAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIVES FROM EASTERN
MONTANA/DAKOTAS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN...AND AIDS IN THE
EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE
DECREASED...WITH NAM/SREF/GFS ALL INDICATING THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE POST-FRONTAL IN NATURE. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ALIGNED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO UNFOLDS. HEAT INDICES WILL STILL BE STEAMY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAU CLAIRE TO FAIRMONT...WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAY YIELD PEAK INDICES NEARING 100 DEGREES.

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER
SHOULD COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY...WITH A REPRIEVE FROM
THE HOT CONDITIONS ARRIVING ON MONDAY.

THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSION OF A DECENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS PROGS STRONG DIVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET
TO BE CENTERED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE /
AREA OF MVFR CIG BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL LINGER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
VCNTY KRWF...OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS OVER REST OF
AREA. SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT BEST CHANCE
OF THIS SOUTH OF TAF SITES. POSSIBLE THUNDER VCNTY OF KMSP AND
KRWF WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBY 21Z-00Z. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG
09Z-12Z BUT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PREVENT THIS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

JPR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
091100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
915 AM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM...TO TWIN CITIES METRO...TO RICE LAKE
WISCONSIN LINE...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...HEAT INDICES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG A FAIRMONT TO EAU
CLAIRE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
ON TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     HAIL             8 NE ANNANDALE          45.34N 94.00W
07/08/2007  E1.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0125 PM     HAIL             5 W MONTICELLO          45.30N 93.91W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             BIG LAKE                45.34N 93.75W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
203 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0151 PM     HAIL             ZIMMERMAN               45.44N 93.59W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

            AT COUNTY RD 4 AND HIGHWAY 169 INTERSECTION.

0200 PM     HAIL             ST FRANCIS              45.44N 93.31W
07/08/2007  E1.00 INCH       ISANTI             MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
209 PM CDT SUN JUL 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0207 PM     HAIL             ELK RIVER               45.33N 93.57W
07/08/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHERBURNE          MN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MKM