Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 110025
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
725 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

MSC013-017-135-161-110115-
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-CALHOUN MS-CHICKASAW MS-
725 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
CHICKASAW...CALHOUN...TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEBB...WATER
VALLEY...VELMA...TUTWILER...SUMNER...SCOBEY...PITTSBORO...PAYNES...
OKOLONA...HOUSTON...HOULKA...ENID...COFFEEVILLE...CHARLESTON...
BRUCE...BRAZIL AND BANNER.

.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3370 9029 3379 9016 3381 9044 3407 9044
      3407 9015 3416 9013 3416 8925 3407 8924
      3407 8873 3381 8871 3381 8891 3374 8903
      3373 8950 3387 8952 3390 8993 3383 8993
      3381 9013 3373 9014 3370 9029

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
316 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...

INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
WORKED ON THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS INCREASED
INSTABILITY...WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 2000J/KG IN CONVECTIVELY
UNDISTURBED AREAS...CONTINUES TO FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH OR
EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AT TIMES BUT WILL REMAIN PULSE IN
NATURE...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...SEVERE HAIL...AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ALSO...FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
SINCE MID AND UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK WHICH WILL
KEEP STORMS EITHER STATIONARY OR VERY SLOW MOVING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. STILL...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
OVERNIGHT AND THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BECOMING
MAXIMIZED DURING THE HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY ACTUALLY
BE MORE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST. ALTHOUGH BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN WEAK...MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN
2000-3000J/KG...LI/S TO -4C...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
6C/KM ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE MAXIMIZED DAYTIME
HEATING AND REMAIN UNDISTURBED BY CONVECTION OR CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PULSE SEVERE STORM THREATS
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE. AGAIN...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED
AS THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNORGANIZED. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO POSE A THREAT WITH WEAK ATMOSPHERIC FLOW
AND SLOW MOVING STORMS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOULD CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD
BRING AN END TO MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR SCOURS OUT MUCH OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THERE STILL IS SOME
QUESTION TO HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT MAKES IT...AND THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED FOR FURTURE CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN BACK TO THE MID SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  69  86  69  85 /  30  50  30  50
MKL  63  85  62  84 /  30  50  30  50
JBR  67  85  65  84 /  30  50  30  50
TUP  66  88  65  87 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-112300-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
347 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
VERY SLOW MOVING AND PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS HEAVY
RAIN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE
PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING IN SOME AREAS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN AREAS WHERE STORMS
BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

MSZ015-102100-
PONTOTOC MS-
301 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...PONTOTOC COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF PONTOTOC AT 301 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN PONTOTOC COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF PONTOTOC...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

MSZ015-102100-
PONTOTOC MS-
305 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...PONTOTOC COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF PONTOTOC AT 301 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN PONTOTOC COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF PONTOTOC...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PONTOTOC COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM CDT.

PWB

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

MSZ023-102100-
CHICKASAW MS-
319 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...CHICKASAW COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON AT 319 PM CDT. THE
STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF HOUSTON AND
OKOLONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

MSZ017-102115-
ITAWAMBA MS-
334 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...ITAWAMBA COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER TREMONT AT 334 PM CDT. THE STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF FULTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             W RIPLEY                34.73N 88.94W
05/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL NEAR RIPLEY AIRPORT ON HWY 4

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE MOUNTAIN           34.67N 89.03W
05/10/2007                   TIPPAH             MS   POST OFFICE

            STANDING WATER ON MILL STREET.

0230 PM     HAIL             ECRU                    34.36N 89.03W
05/10/2007  E1.00 INCH       PONTOTOC           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0328 PM     HAIL             4 E FULTON              34.26N 88.33W
05/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DSV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
420 PM CDT THU MAY 10 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     HAIL             W RIPLEY                34.73N 88.94W
05/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL NEAR RIPLEY AIRPORT ON HWY 4

0215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLUE MOUNTAIN           34.67N 89.03W
05/10/2007                   TIPPAH             MS   POST OFFICE

            STANDING WATER ON MILL STREET.

0230 PM     HAIL             ECRU                    34.36N 89.03W
05/10/2007  E1.00 INCH       PONTOTOC           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL

0328 PM     HAIL             4 E FULTON              34.26N 88.33W
05/10/2007  E0.88 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0345 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N FAIRVIEW            34.44N 88.32W
05/10/2007                   ITAWAMBA           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 5 INCHES OF WATER COVERING ROADWAYS

&&

DSV