Flash Flood Warning 170, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
437 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...
HVY RAINFALL SHIFTING S WITH LLJ AND W-SW WITH MEAN STEERING FLOW.
THRU 18Z HVY RAIN FOCUS WILL BE IN WRN PB...THE FT. STOCKTON AREA
AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON QPF AND UPPER FEATURES. AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE
N STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NE SUPPORTING CONVECTION RE-
FOCUSING INVOF HIER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE GFS INDICATES
SHRTWV TROF WILL TRACK. EXPECT THAT AN MCV (POSSIBLE TWO) WILL BE
LEFT OVER FROM INTENSE CONVECTION THIS MORNING. ALSO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH S OF THE PECOS RIVER AND MID LEVEL THETA-E
RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE W. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE PB IN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH EVEN THOUGH FOCUS WILL BE FARTHER W TODAY. WILL
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS OR AT LEAST GO TOWARD COOLER GFS WITH SO
MUCH WATER ON THE GROUND. BY FRIDAY RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACRS
PANHANDLE WITH E MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH
THETA-E RIDGE W AND WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE HIEST POPS INVOF MTNS.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO FCST BEYOND FRIDAY.

.CLIMATE...
2.54 OF RAIN AT KMAF SINCE MIDNIGHT. THIS IS THE 2ND HIEST DAILY AMOUNT
FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. THE HIEST DAILY RAINFALL IN AUGUST OCCURRED
ON THE 24TH IN 1934 WHEN 5.32 OF RAIN FELL. WITH THIS MORNINGS RAIN
MAF HAS ALREADY SURPASSED THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL OF 1.77.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              80  68  86  69  /  50  40  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                87  69  84  69  /  50  40  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  89  72  /  60  50  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  71  85  70  /  60  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          83  64  77  62  /  60  50  40  30
HOBBS NM                   85  69  87  70  /  50  40  30  20
MARFA TX                   80  63  77  60  /  60  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  68  85  70  /  50  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                  84  70  85  70  /  50  40  30  20
WINK TX                    89  72  89  71  /  60  40  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF
     EDDY COUNTY.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...
     EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO
     7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...MARFA PLATEAU...PRESIDIO VALLEY...VAN HORN AND
     HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...CRANE...
     DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...LOVING...MARTIN...
     MIDLAND...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-031015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
502 AM CDT THU AUG 2 2007 /402 AM MDT THU AUG 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. THIS MORNING STORMS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN RESULTED
IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST
CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND HOUR AND DOWNBURST WINDS TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HEAVY
RAIN WITH FLOODING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN.

HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS MAY INCREASE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WITH TRIBUTARIES
ALREADY RUNNING WITH WATER FROM RECENT RAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCAL
OFFICIALS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 AM CDT THU AUG 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      16 NNW STANTON          32.34N 101.89W
08/02/2007                   MARTIN             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            8 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS THE INTERSECTION OF SH
            137 AND FM 846.

0112 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/02/2007                   MIDLAND            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTIONS OF ILLINOIS
            AND STONYBROOK...HIGHWAY 191 AND LOOP 250 AND MIDLAND
            DRIVE AND WALL STREET. MULTIPLE HIGH WATER RESCUES WERE
            IN PROGRESS.

0130 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MIDLAND                 32.00N 102.08W
08/02/2007                   MIDLAND            TX   PUBLIC

            HIGH WATER/FLASH FLOODING REACHING NEAR DOORS OF
            RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOODS ALONG ROOSEVELT STREET NEAR
            MIDLAND DRIVE AND ILLINOIS AVE.

0149 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S MIDLAND             31.96N 102.08W
08/02/2007                   MIDLAND            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            10 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS STATE HIGHWAY 349 SOUTH
            OF INTERSTATE 20.

0210 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/02/2007                   ECTOR              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ODESSA POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTS FLASH FLOODING AT THE
            INTERSECTIONS OF 36TH AND DIXIE...52ND AND DIXIE...DIXIE
            AND UNIVERSITY AVE...AND 52ND AND ESMUND. MULTIPLE HIGH
            WATER RESCUES ONGOING.

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/02/2007                   ECTOR              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLASH FLOODING AND HIGH WATER RESCUES REPORTED AT 31ST
            AND DIXIE. MULTIPLE CARS STALLED AT THE INTERSECTION OF
            JBS PARKWAY AND 42ND STREET.

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ODESSA                  31.85N 102.37W
08/02/2007                   ECTOR              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PORTIONS OF BUSINESS 20/HIGHWAY 80 BEING CLOSED IN ODESSA
            DUE TO HIGH WATER/FLOODING.

&&

CLL