Flash Flood Warning 149, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 212202
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TXC495-220015-
WINKLER-
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT FOR
WINKLER COUNTY...

AT 450 PM CDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED WATER ONE
AND A HALF TO TWO FEET DEEP FLOWING OVER STATE HIGHWAY 115
AND WILDCAT DRIVE IN THE COMMUNITY OF WINK IN WINKLER COUNTY. 
WATER WAS REPORTED FROM CURB TO CURB AND FLOWING RAPIDLY IN 
MANY STREETS IN WINK. 

AT 450 PM CDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WHICH COULD 
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE WINKLER
COUNTY SANDHILLS...KERMIT...WINK

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3198 10331 3199 10305 3207 10304 3207 10281
      3168 10281 3168 10332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 180DEG 0KT 3180 10303

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 220010
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

TXC495-220020-
WINKLER-
710 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT FOR WINKLER
COUNTY...

AT 710 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE HEAVY RAIN THAT PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND
NO LONGER APPEARS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. 

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT FLOODING HAS PASSED...PONDING OF
WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SOME ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN
CAUTIOUS AND BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN IF WATER IS ENCOUNTERED TO
PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND LOSS OF VEHICLE CONTROL.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3198 10331 3199 10305 3207 10304 3207 10281
      3168 10281 3168 10332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 180DEG 0KT 3180 10303

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
220 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE RESIDING
OVER THE REGION.  AT THE SURFACE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WAS
RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  THERE WAS ALSO AN
MCV NORTHWEST OF DEL RIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH APPEARED TO BE
TRANSLATING SLOWLY WEST/NORTHWESTWARD.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE CWA.

THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER FEATURES INTERACT WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW...HIGHER THETAE AIR...AND SOME HEATING OF THE TROPICAL AIRMASS.
AN MCS COULD FORM SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/MCV TREK INTO THE CWA.
NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE...OR HOW FAR NORTHWEST...ANY MCS WOULD MAKE
IT...BESIDES MORE THAN ONE MCS COULD DEVELOP BUT IT WOULD BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE.  THEREFORE...THINK IT WOULD BE PRUDENT
TO LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT.  THIS ESPECIALLY
SO CONSIDERING PWATS ARE IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE...AND VERY HEAVY
RAINS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED FURTHER EAST.

THINK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST AND SHUNT ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OR MCVS SOUTH AND WEST.  POPS OVER THE PLAINS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW AGGRESSIVELY THE RIDGE DOES BUILD IN...BUT IT APPEARS
THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT...IF NOT DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY.  THROUGH MONDAY...HAVE RELEGATED MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  BY TUESDAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW MEXICO...WHICH WILL
PUT THE AREA UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ARE PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA WITHIN THIS FLOW...BUT WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO ANY EVENT BEFORE MODELS HAVE A
CHANCE TO RESOLVE ANY OF THEM.  LEFT AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN
CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  87  69  91  /  60  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                67  87  68  94  /  70  30  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  71  87  67  91  /  90  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  86  68  91  /  90  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  81  64  89  /  70  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                   66  87  68  92  /  60  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  78  58  85  /  80  40  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  87  70  92  /  60  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  88  71  92  /  70  20  10  10
WINK TX                    69  90  72  96  /  80  30  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY
     PLAINS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA
     COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 7
     AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
     MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
     TERRELL...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...
     WINKLER.

&&

67/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-221630-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007 /1025 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS POTENTIAL. THOSE NEAR LOW
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...COVERAGE/CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND TREND WESTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-220200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUEEN...ARTESIA...CARLSBAD...
CARLSBAD CAVERNS NP...TATUM...HOBBS...LOVINGTON...EUNICE...JAL...
SEMINOLE...LAMESA...GAIL...SNYDER...ANDREWS...STANTON...
BIG SPRING...COLORADO CITY...VAN HORN...PECOS...MENTONE...
RED BLUFF LAKE...KERMIT...ODESSA...MIDLAND...GARDEN CITY...
MONAHANS...CRANE...MCCAMEY...RANKIN...BIG LAKE...ALPINE...
FORT STOCKTON...PRESIDIO...MARFA...BIG BEND NP...MARATHON...
SANDERSON...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP...PINE SPRINGS
1240 PM CDT SAT JUL 21 2007 /1140 AM MDT SAT JUL 21 2007/

...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED A REPORT OF
A TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUD IN LEA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AT 1230 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION IS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE.
BECAUSE THE AIRMASS IS SO MOIST...TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS MAY
DEVELOP UNDERNEATH A STORM INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS.

TYPICALLY...TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE SHORT-LIVED AND RARELY LAST LONG
THAN TEN MINUTES. THEY ARE ALSO SMALL AND GROW TO PERHAPS TEN OR
TWENTY YARDS IN DIAMETER. ON RARE OCCASIONS...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS
DO TOUCH THE GROUND AND BRIEFLY BECOME TORNADOES. WIND SPEEDS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY UNDER 60
MPH...AND CAN DAMAGE LIGHTWEIGHT STRUCTURES SUCH AS CARPORTS AND
AWNINGS. SINCE THESE TROPICAL FUNNELS ARE BRIEF...SMALL...AND
RELATIVELY WEAK...THEY ARE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT WITH
DOPPLER RADAR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.