Flash Flood Warning 144, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 210314
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

TXC103-210530-
CRANE-
1008 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR
EASTERN CRANE COUNTY...

AT 1006 PM CDT...THE CRANE POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THE 
INTERSECTION OF 8TH AND GASTON STREETS WAS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE. 
THIS INTERSECTION HAS BEEN BLOCKED BY THE TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF 
TRANSPORTATION. 

AT 1007 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED 
TO DETECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS 
EASTERN CRANE COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES 
PER CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL 
WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3164 10265 3165 10231 3116 10231 3122 10244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0308Z 180DEG 0KT 3139 10236

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
203 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WHEREAS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REIGNED YESTERDAY...TODAY/S MODEL
OFFERINGS HAVE DIVERGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND FEATURES ROTATING AROUND IT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  IN THE NEAR TERM...IT APPEARS MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY IN PARTICULAR.

AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH LIE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/
PLAINS.  A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF DISCRETE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WAS AVAILABLE IN THE LATEST PROGS...WHICH WILL
PLAY HAVOC ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY.  THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH...
BUT RETAIN AT LEAST A CHANCE OF RAIN CWAWIDE ON SATURDAY WITH LESSER
CHANCES ON EITHER SIDE OF THAT TIME FRAME.  INSTABILITY WILL
PROBABLY BE LACKING IN MOST AREAS FOR SEVERE STORMS...NOT TO MENTION
SHEAR...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO...BUT WILL NOT TRY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC
DUE TO THE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONCERNING WHERE.

.LONG TERM...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY...SO WILL LESSEN POPS OVER THE EAST AND KEEP AT LEAST
ISOLATED POPS OVER THE WEST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  WILL RAISE
TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO GUIDANCE MAXES TOO.  AN MCS MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT IS NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES A LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND
LEAVES THE AREA UNDER NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER CONSIDERING THE
DISPARITY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES FOR NOW.  WILL THEN GO WITH ISOLATED
POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
AS ENOUGH OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO KEEP
CHANCES TO A DULL ROAR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS.  ALL OF THIS
WILL BE HIGHLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH
WEAK SUMMERTIME FLOW/FEATURES...AS HAS BEEN DISPLAYED FROM SPRINGTIME
ONWARD THIS YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              69  84  68  89  /  40  40  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  89  70  92  /  30  50  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  70  85  70  89  /  60  70  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  67  90  /  50  70  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  83  63  85  /  30  50  40  20
HOBBS NM                   67  87  68  90  /  30  40  20  10
MARFA TX                   60  79  62  83  /  40  70  40  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  83  68  90  /  40  50  20  10
ODESSA TX                  69  85  68  91  /  40  60  20  10
WINK TX                    71  88  72  94  /  30  60  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

67/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 20 2007 /1208 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
PERMIAN BASIN LINE.  SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW
STORMS COULD STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLOODING...
APPEARS MOST LIKELY IN AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...HOWEVER LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL
AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OVER 35 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND