Tornado Warning 19, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
PAST THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY THIS EVENING BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE SYSTEM MAY LAST THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST. PUT IN
LIKELY POPS FOR EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH POPS DECREASING
LATE THEN CONTINUED SMALL POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL COVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
WARMTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND THAT SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL KEEP POPS BELOW
THRESHOLD FOR NOW. CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
STAY IN THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AREA FOR AWHILE AND STILL SOME
QUESTION ON WHEN IT WILL ACTUALLY COME OUT. APPEARS THE MAIN
CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY POSSIBLY HOLD OFF THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
WILL DROP ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THURSDAY THEN HAVE SMALL POPS IN
THE WEST TO START THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POPS INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT KEEPING HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST. BASICALLY KEPT THIS
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY. THERE ARE SIGNS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE MAIN PRECIP ACROSS ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW BUT THIS COULD END UP BEING
DELAYED. CONTINUED WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY THEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON MAXES FRIDAY DUE TO MORE
ANTICIPATED CLOUDS. MINS WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE TO PERSISTENECE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIMING OF UPPER TROF PASSAGE WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FOR SATURDAY...AS
MODELS NOT CONSISTENT IN TIMING OF FEATURE. FOR NOW...HAVE SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...WITH DRY WEATHER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM MISSOURI ON
TUESDAY...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.
GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT BUYING
INTO WARMUP SO HELD TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     60  81  60  81 /  70  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         62  84  62  85 /  60  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       59  80  59  80 /  60  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  83  62  83 /  60  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  83  62  83 /  60  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     62  84  62  85 /  70  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      62  83  61  83 /  60  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  59  79  59  80 /  60  20  10  10
NEWPORT AR        61  81  60  82 /  70  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     62  83  62  84 /  70  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   61  82  60  82 /  60  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         62  82  61  83 /  70  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      62  83  62  83 /  70  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...29 / LONG TERM...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-281000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1245 PM CDT TUE MAR 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE MID SOUTH. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
MOUNT IDA...TO STUTTGART LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE
NATURAL STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME BETTER KNOWN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DRIER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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