Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
505 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY SPARKING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
AND PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER JET STREAM. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

NEW ZN UPDATE TO INCLUDE CENTRAL VA IN SVR TSTM WATCH TIL 02Z.

ONLY UPDATE...18Z IAD SNDG IS IN SYSTEM. WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

SFC/850 ANLYS SHOWS HIGH PRES HAS MOVED S TO A POSN E OF ILM...AND A
TROF ACROSS MI. WHILE IT IS A BIT WARMER THAN WEVE XPRCND IN THE
LAST FEW DAYS..STILL NOWHERE NEAR THE LVL OF OPRESSIVENESS THAT CAN
BE XPRNCD IN THE MID ATLC ON JUL 4.

IN SPITE OF THAT...MAJORITY OF CWA HAS BEEN PLACED IN SLT RISK. AS
INDICATED IN PRVS PARAGRAPH - NORMALLY ID BE KEYING ON XCSV CAPE
TDA...BUT TDA ITS MORE THE WIND FIELD. HODOGRAPHS ARE SHOWING THE
INVERTED U PROFILE IN LATE AFTN/EVE THAT CATCH MY INTEREST.

NSSL SIM REF MDL SHOWS STRONGER STORMS FORMING THE MTNS ARND 2 PM
AND WORKING THEIR WAY E DURG LATE AFTN HRS. OBVIOUSLY THIS IS OF BIG
CONCERN GIVEN THE LARGE CROWDS XPCTD TO GATHER OUTSIDE TNGT. SKYWARN
HAS BEEN PLACED ON NOTICE AND IS READY TO ACTIVATE.

WOODY

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE POSSIBLE INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION...AS INDICATED VERY
WELL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF MODEL RUNS...DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST...A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED LULL WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE LATE NIGHT HRS BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE
BEST CHANCES DURING THE TONIGHT AND THURS PERIODS WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE MD/PA BORDER...AS THE UPPER JET ASSERTS IT/S INFLUENCE ALONG
THIS AREA...AND THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR THIS REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND AVAILABLE ENERGY DROPS SHARPLY
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH. POPS REMAIN LOW FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A BROAD BRUSH OF EQUAL CHANCES
COMING INTO PLAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPAL. MTNS AND
SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POSSIBLE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT WEEK PER EC MODEL. PATTERN
TRANSITIONING FROM A RIDGE TO A TROF IN THE WEST AND A FLAT RIDGE IN
THE EAST. GFS AND THE ENSEMBLES APPEAR TO HINT AT A SLIGHT
DE-AMPLIFICATION IN THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT...GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD
ON TO THE STUBBORN RIDGE ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WELL INTO
THE EXTENDED.

SHOULD BE A ANOTHER NICE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO AREA FROM WEST RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO A
WEAKER WESTERLY FLOW AS UPPER JET LIFTS INTO CANADA. FORECAST AREA
SHOULD STAY MAINLY DRY THROUGH TUESDAY ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY FLOW TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTN
CONVECTION. APPEARS NEXT COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH VERY WEAK...TRACKS
ACROSS AREA TUE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF TSTMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DVLP 18-23Z.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY...AND OFF THE
COAST LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A CALM LOOKING WEEKEND AND QUIET
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS..ESPECIALLY THE BAY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BAY CHANNELING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIODS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURS. INTO FRI. NO PROBLEMS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
303 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-051515-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
303 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA AND
NORTHERN VIRGINIA IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 10 PM. THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES.

THE WATERS OF THE POTOMAC RIVER AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE ALSO IN THE TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 10 PM. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. THE MID ATLANTIC REGION HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC
RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION HAS BEEN INITIATED. SPOTTERS ARE URGED TO
REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE SKYWARN CONTROL POINT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
527 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TORNADO          COLUMBIA                39.20N 76.86W
07/04/2007                   HOWARD             MD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN EAST COLUMBIA

&&

SAL

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