Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
309 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CONTINUING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST CROSSING NEAR
RUIDOSO NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME...STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING THEN ACROSS NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN EARLY TONIGHT. 50KT UPPER LEVEL JET ROTATING AROUND LOW
CREATING MODESTLY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE THOUGH MAY BE LEADING
TOWARDS GREATER SUBSIDENCE IN ADVANCE. MOISTURE PULLING FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS SOUTH PLAINS WITH SLIGHT CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS EARLY TONIGHT.
WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A LIKELY SECTION OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
OUTFLOWS SEEM MOST LIKELY DESTINED FROM NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
EVENING...ALTHOUGH LACK OF A CUMULUS FIELD IN ADVANCE IS A PROBLEM
FOR STORM CHANCES. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OUR WRF/NAM MODEL
OUTPUT IN THIS REGARD. QUICK BURST OF HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO LOCAL
STORM RUN-OFF ISSUES STILL SEEMS THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH AS
STATED EARLIER WE ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A VERY LOW SEVERE RISK. LOW
SHOULD SPIN OUT TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ATMOSPHERE WILL GO INTO BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING EARLY TUESDAY WITH
MODEST LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS SUPPORTING A LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT.
STRATUS TRANSPORT NORTHWARD LOOKS A GOOD BET EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS. DRY-LINE WILL TIGHTEN BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH
PERHAPS A TREND TOWARDS BULGING THE DRY-LINE EASTWARD LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WRF/NAM HINTS AT AN ELEVATED CAP ISSUE FOR
SOUTHERN ZONES NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...ALTHOUGH NOT YET A FATAL CAP.
WE HAVE TRIMMED OUR MENTION OF THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM MINIMAL
SOUTHWEST TO SOLID CHANCE NORTHEAST. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE. WARMED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WESTERN ZONES BEHIND DRY-LINE...THOUGH
IN GENERAL KEPT A NOTCH BELOW MOST GUIDANCE. FIRST 90 DEGREE OF THE
YEAR MAY THREATEN KLBB DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG DOWNSLOPE SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY.  MCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER IDAHO SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NEAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHERE IT BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN IT
BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER
MID WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
BIG COUNTRY/SOUTHERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE
IN MODELS WITH HANDLING OF FRONT...HOWEVER THERE A CONSENSUS THAT
FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN/SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS BEFORE WASHING OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH FRONT OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF
POPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF SOME POPS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TO BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THEN CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH KLBB AND KCDS THIS EVENING THOUGH
CURRENT RADAR DISPLAY IS UNIMPRESSIVE. MAY NEED TO WAIT FOR THE LOW
TO STEER OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT
SHOULD LEAD TO STRATUS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND MAY CAUSE LLWS ISSUES. RM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  87  55  80  53 /  20  20  40  30  40
TULIA         57  84  54  81  56 /  30  30  40  30  40
PLAINVIEW     57  87  58  83  57 /  30  30  40  30  40
LEVELLAND     57  90  59  82  59 /  40  20  30  30  40
LUBBOCK       59  89  61  83  61 /  40  20  40  30  40
BROWNFIELD    57  90  58  87  59 /  60  20  30  30  40
CHILDRESS     63  85  66  85  63 /  40  40  50  40  40
SPUR          61  85  63  85  61 /  50  30  40  30  40
ASPERMONT     63  87  65  86  64 /  50  30  40  30  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

05/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

TXZ021>044-291645-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES OUT OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS REMAIN WEAK...SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS THIS EVENING. AREAS SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM LEVELLAND TO JAYTON WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING LAKE ALAN
HENRY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CAPROCK ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS
HERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
COULD RESULT IN HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 60
MPH FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN TODAY DUE TO HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND ANTICIPATED SLOW STORM
MOTION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTH IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAPROCK. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL ALLOW STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH
WILL AID STORM ORGANIZATION. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ISOLATED
ALONG THE DRYLINE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON BUT BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING
THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...HOWEVER LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
657 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2.5 N SLIDE             33.45N 101.93W
05/28/2007  E1.25 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
802 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HAIL             2 S WOODROW             33.42N 101.84W
05/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       LUBBOCK            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZED HAIL JUST
            SOUTH OF WOODROW

&&

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
849 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     HAIL             10 N PLAINVIEW          34.34N 101.72W
05/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       SWISHER            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL JUST SOUTH OF
            KRESS ALONG THE SWISHER AND HALE COUNTY LINE

&&

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
856 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             6 NNW ROPESVILLE        33.49N 102.19W
05/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       HOCKLEY            TX   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
906 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             5 S WOODROW             33.37N 101.84W
05/28/2007  E0.75 INCH       LYNN               TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED. REPORT RELAYED BY NWS
            MIDLAND.

&&

JDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
911 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2007

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             7 NNE PLAINVIEW         34.28N 101.68W
05/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       HALE               TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL SIZE HAIL NORTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW

&&

JDV