Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 062107
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

MOC135-062130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-070506T2130Z/
MONITEAU MO-
407 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL MONITEAU COUNTY...

AT 404 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...RURAL
EASTERN MONITEAU COUNTY.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR 
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER 
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3854 9271 3848 9249 3870 9240 3866 9247
      3871 9262

$$

TES

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 062123
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

MOC135-062130-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0109.000000T0000Z-070506T2130Z/
MONITEAU MO-
423 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MONITEAU COUNTY...

AT 421 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR KLIEVER...OR ABOUT 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CALIFORNIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...SANDY
HOOK...JAMESTOWN AND LUPUS.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THIS IS 
AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 3868 9262 3860 9245 3872 9239 3880 9240
      3892 9250

$$

TES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
336 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DEALS WITH HOW LONG TSRA WILL LAST INTO
TONIGHT AND ALSO WITH TSRA CHANCES WELL INTO THE WEEK. NAM/GFS
CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL BREAK DOWN AS STRONG UPPER LOW OFF THE SE COAST MOVES WWD
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND CAUSING IT TO BREAK DOWN AS THE WRN
TROUGH TO SHEARS OUT. WHERE THERE IS DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO
MODELS...HAVE DEFERRED TO THE NAM AS GFS HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
PROBLEMS.

TSRA INCREASED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW OF
THE MCS THAT HAS MOVED SLOWLY EWD TODAY. TSRA OVER CENTRAL MO HAVE
BEEN MOST ACTIVE WHERE MLCAPES WERE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND
SHEAR WAS LOCALLY MAXIMIZED NEAR THE INTESECTION OF THE OUTFLOW
AND WEAK QSNTRY FRONT. EXPECT LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO EARLY EVENING.  EWD EXTENT
OF THE MCS HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY SUNSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE
SCALE AND LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD. WITH THIS
IDEA...WILL HAVE A CHC OF TSRA OVER THE NRN AND WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE ORIENTATION SHIFTS SEWD AND THE WRN
TROUGH SHEARS OUT...CHANCES OF TSRA WILL THEN SLOWLY SPREAD SEWD
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. CONFIDENCE DOES DECREASE WITH TIME...
ESPECIALLY BY LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE. 12Z RUNS OF GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SW OF
THE CWA...SO WITH LACK OF CONFIDENCE HERE...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKED PRETTY SIMILAR IN THE NEAR TERM...SO
USED A BLEND. TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND ARE
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MOS AND HPC
GUIDANCE.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NW MO IS
MAKING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND HAS GENERATED NEW DEEP CONVECTION
ON ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A THREAT
OF TSRA AT KCOU AROUND 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS LESSER IN KUIN AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND THE AIR MASS IS
MORE STABLE. ELSEWHERE THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS FROM THE ST LOUIS
AREA SOUTHWARD IS SHRINKING ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND SHOULDNT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AFTER 19Z. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING. THINK
WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL MO
DUE TO ANTICIPATED PCPN THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THAT
AREA.

GLASS

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SD/MN/NE/IA OVERNIGHT AND ALSO
WITH PERSISTENT MCS ACROSS ERN IA AND NWRN MO HAS CAUSED/WILL
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. RIVER
FORECASTS BASED MAINLY ON THIS OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IN ADDITION
TO SOME MINOR ADDITIONAL QPF SHOWS THAT ALL FORECAST POINTS ALONG
THE MO RIVER IN OUR HSA WILL GO INTO MODERATE FLOOD BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL RISES THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR FLOODING AT SOME POINTS. THIS INPUT INTO
THE MS RIVER WILL CAUSE IT TO CLIMB TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE AT ST.
LOUIS AND CHESTER. HAVE ALREADY ISSUED FLWS ALONG THE MO AND WILL BE
ADDING A HEADLINE TO THE WEB SITE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        58  81  64  80 /  10  10  20  20
QUINCY          56  78  62  77 /  10  20  30  30
COLUMBIA        62  83  62  78 /  40  30  30  30
JEFFERSON CITY  62  83  62  79 /  40  30  30  30
SALEM           51  76  56  80 /  10  10  10  20
FARMINGTON      57  81  59  81 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MISSOURI RIVER. A FLOOD WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH FLOODING FORECAST AT ALL POINTS
FROM JEFFERSON CITY TO ST CHARLES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE AND POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CRESTS OCCUR. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
323 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             JAMESTOWN               38.77N 92.48W
05/06/2007  E1.00 INCH       MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
329 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JAMESTOWN               38.77N 92.48W
05/06/2007                   MONITEAU           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER POLE AND SEVERAL LINES DOWN

&&

FGLASS