Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS St. Louis, MO

000 
WWUS53 KLSX 062016
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

MOC007-019-137-062045-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0107.000000T0000Z-070506T2045Z/
BOONE MO-AUDRAIN MO-MONROE MO-
316 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR MONROE...NORTHWESTERN AUDRAIN AND NORTHERN BOONE COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR STURGEON...OR ABOUT NEAR CENTRALIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...PARIS
AND HOLLIDAY.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3911 9240 3906 9222 3963 9179 3961 9224

$$

GLASS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
ONE OF THE MOST COMPLEX MAY WEATHER PATTERNS I HAVE EVER SEEN IS
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NATION. AN UPPER RIDGE/OMEGA BLOCK RUNS
FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN
HUDSON BAY AREA. ON THE WEST SIDE AN EXTREMELY DEEP TROUGH
ELONGATED THROUGH THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO SPLIT ITS ENERGY INTO
HALF WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF AFFECTING OUR WEATHER FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. IT WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EAST...REACHING CENTRAL ARKANSAS
ON SATURDAY.

A TREMENDOUS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST
TO DROP STRAIGHT SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DRY COOL AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS FORECAST TO PRESS WESTWARD AS FAR AS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL TAKE THE
HUMIDITY OUT OF THE AIR...ESPECIALLY IN ILLINOIS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST TO TUMBLE INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TONIGHT EAST OF THE RIVER.

AN INTENSE PRECIPITATION PRODUCIING SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED JUST TO OUR
WEST FROM KANSAS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI. IVE BEEN KEEPING TRACK OF OMAHA...THEY HAVE
5.14 INCHES SO FAR TONIGHT AND STILL RAINING A HALF INCH AN HOUR
WITH THE BEST RAINS YET TO COME TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
MISSOURI NORTH OF KANSAS CITY IS GETTING POUNDED. STORM TOTALS
THERE SHOW 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLIN IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THIS IS A VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST AGAIN. I HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT KEEP IT IN
WESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD...MIDWEEK...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS CLOSER WE CAN
EXPECT INCREASED CLOUDS AND AT LEAST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

PEDIGO

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN NW MO IS
MAKING SOME EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND HAS GENERATED NEW DEEP CONVECTION
ON ITS LEADING EDGE. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A THREAT
OF TSRA AT KCOU AROUND 20Z. CONFIDENCE IS LESSER IN KUIN AS LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR AND THE AIR MASS IS
MORE STABLE. ELSEWHERE THE BAND OF MVFR CIGS FROM THE ST LOUIS
AREA SOUTHWARD IS SHRINKING ON ITS NORTHERN FRINGE AND SHOULDNT
BE MUCH OF A FACTOR AFTER 19Z. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING. THINK
WE COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL MO
DUE TO ANTICIPATED PCPN THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHER SFC DPTS IN THAT
AREA.

GLASS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ST LOUIS        77  59  79  61 /  20  10  20  20
QUINCY          75  56  78  61 /  30  20  20  30
COLUMBIA        80  62  82  64 /  40  30  40  30
JEFFERSON CITY  81  62  82  64 /  40  20  40  30
SALEM           78  52  77  57 /  10  10  10  10
FARMINGTON      79  58  80  59 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-071215-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
1053 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CONTAINING DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION AS AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.

WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT
IN SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MISSOURI RIVER. A FLOOD WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER WITH FLOODING FORECAST AT ALL POINTS
FROM JEFFERSON CITY TO ST CHARLES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MODERATE AND POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN THE CRESTS OCCUR. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GLASS