Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1118 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

SEVERE EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.  LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  WITHIN THE LINE
WE HAVE BEEN DETECTING SMALL MESO VORTICES THAT COULD CAUSE A BRIEF
TORNADO AND/OR EXTREME WIND DAMAGE.

CONVECTION IS NOW APPROACHING THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN
NORTH OF THE WESTERN KY AND BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS WILL BE MAINLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND THESE SMALL MESO VORTICIES WITHIN THE LINE.

SOUTH OF THE PARKWAY...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A BIT MORE LIKELY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.  WITH THE BETTER SHEAR
AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE STILL
PREVELENT IN THIS AREA.

FOR AREAS IN THE EAST...LIKE THE LEXINGTON METRO...THIS WEATHER WILL
IN AFTER MIDNIGHT...MORE LIKELY IN THE 1-3 AM EDT CORRIDOR.

WE ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO LEAVE THEIR WEATHER RADIO ON DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WARNINGS.

-JARVIS

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU THU)...

WELL BE PUTTING ALL OUR RESOURCES INTO THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HENCEFORTH WILL BE MAKING
NO OR JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM
WEEKEND...TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AT THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.

DK

&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS):...
DEALING WITH SUPERCELLS FOR THE SHORT TERM ...ESPECIALLY SDF VCNTY.
LATER TONIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA STARTING 4-6Z SDF AND 7-9Z LEX. WILL GO WI
SCT TO BKN SC DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN KY WITH OUR
REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. --21
&&

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1106 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-190830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1106 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND UNTIL 5 AM EDT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN
11 PM AND 5 AM EDT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT.

SINCE THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA AT
NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO
ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A WARNING
IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP. MANY SEVERE WEATHER FATALITIES OCCUR
LATE AT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GUSTY TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK REGION...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION ON
WEST-TO-EAST ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AML/DK/MBS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1158 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     TSTM WND GST     BOWLING GREEN           36.97N 86.44W
10/18/2007  E65 MPH          WARREN             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1202 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     HAIL             CANEYVILLE              37.42N 86.49W
10/19/2007  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   PUBLIC

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1202 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1136 PM     HAIL             CANEYVILLE              37.42N 86.49W
10/18/2007  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            KY   PUBLIC

&&

LD