Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1025 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

SEVERE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL RENEGADE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.  ONE THAT
HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT ROTATION IS OVER FAR NE ORANGE COUNTY AND WILL
MOVE INTO NW WASHINGTON COUNTY INDIANA.

LINE OF EXTENSIVE CONVECTION HAS COME TOGETHER AND IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA.  THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE I-65
CORRIDOR OF KENTUCKY IN THE NEXT 60 TO 90 MINUTES OR SO.

REGIONAL RADAR VERTICAL WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW EXTREME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.  ONE THING OF NOTE IS THAT LCLS
HAVE RISEN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT STILL
REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KY.  THEREFORE...FEEL THAT
BEST THREAT OF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...A
TRANSITION TO A WIND DAMAGE THREAT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN THE EASTERN CWA INCLUDING THE
LEXINGTON AREA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WE ENCOURAGE PEOPLE TO LEAVE
THEIR WEATHER RADIO ON DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST WARNINGS.

-JARVIS

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...

...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS A TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS ISSUED AT 1840Z
AND RUNS TILL 4Z TONIGHT FOR WRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  ATMOSPHERE IS
ON THE RECOVERY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER INSTABILITY
IS STARTING TO NOSE IN FROM THE WSW AS CLOUDS BREAK UP ALLOWING SFC
HEATING. CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER FAR WRN CWA.  THINKING
SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER WRN CWA WHICH IS IN THE WATCH AREA.  EXPECTING CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH ALONG THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL THEN.

MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.  LAPS 50 TO 60 KT BULK SHEAR WILL MAKE QUITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS OBSERVED WITH
CONVECTION OVER IL AND MO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD LL SHEAR
ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL
PROBABLY INITIATE OVER WRN KY AND IN/IL EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
REACHES CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF CWA AROUND 5Z TO 9Z.

BE SURE TO TURN ON YOUR WEATHER RADIOS THIS EVENING TO REMAIN ALERT
OF SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES.

--AML

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU THU)...

WELL BE PUTTING ALL OUR RESOURCES INTO THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HENCEFORTH WILL BE MAKING
NO OR JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM
WEEKEND...TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AT THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.

DK

&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAFS):...
DEALING WITH SUPERCELLS FOR THE SHORT TERM ...ESPECIALLY SDF VCNTY.
LATER TONIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH LIKELY SQUALL LINE OF TSTMS MOVING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS FA STARTING 4-6Z SDF AND 7-9Z LEX. WILL GO WI
SCT TO BKN SC DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS NRN KY WITH OUR
REGION BEING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE WRAP AROUND CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH. --21
&&

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1106 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-190830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1106 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND UNTIL 5 AM EDT FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
CENTRAL KENTUCKY TONIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA BY MIDNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN
11 PM AND 5 AM EDT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT.

SINCE THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA AT
NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO
ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A WARNING
IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP. MANY SEVERE WEATHER FATALITIES OCCUR
LATE AT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GUSTY TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK REGION...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION ON
WEST-TO-EAST ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AML/DK/MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1023 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
10/18/2007                   CLARK              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE AND CARPORT BLOWN OFF

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 PM     TSTM WND GST     MILTON                  38.71N 85.37W
10/18/2007  E70 MPH          TRIMBLE            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1035 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTOWN             38.45N 85.67W
10/18/2007                   CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 BARNS DESTROYED. TRAILER PICKED AND MOVED

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1041 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0934 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEFLIN                  37.50N 87.00W
10/18/2007                   OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STRUCTURE DAMAGE...TREES DOWN ROADS BLOCKED FOR WESTERN
            PART OF COUNTY

&&

LD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1042 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1002 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW WASHINGTON          38.57N 85.55W
10/18/2007                   CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN CARPORT DESTROYED

&&

LD

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