Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
518 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

CONVECTION HAS RAPDILY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA.  18Z
SOUNDING OUT OF NASHVILLE SHOWS GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR SUGGESTIVE OF
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  CURRENTLY ONE SPLITTING SUPERCELL IS NEARING
NW HANCOCK COUNTY WHILE ANOTHER ONE IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD HENDERSON.

DISCRETE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MAINLY
AFFECT THE NW PORTION OF OUR FA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  FURTHER
WEST...CONVECTIVE LINE FURTHER WEST ACROSS MO AND IL WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

-MJ

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT)...

...ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT EXPECTED TONIGHT...

FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS IS A TORNADO WATCH WHICH WAS ISSUED AT 1840Z
AND RUNS TILL 4Z TONIGHT FOR WRN TWO THIRDS OF CWA.  ATMOSPHERE IS
ON THE RECOVERY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. BETTER INSTABILITY
IS STARTING TO NOSE IN FROM THE WSW AS CLOUDS BREAK UP ALLOWING SFC
HEATING. CAPES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER FAR WRN CWA.  THINKING
SCATTERED T-STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER WRN CWA WHICH IS IN THE WATCH AREA.  EXPECTING CONVECTION TO
REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH ALONG THE BEST INSTABILITY AXIS UNTIL THEN.

MAIN EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT.  ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT.  LAPS 50 TO 60 KT BULK SHEAR WILL MAKE QUITE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WAS OBSERVED WITH
CONVECTION OVER IL AND MO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GOOD LL SHEAR
ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.  THINKING IS THAT CELLS WILL
PROBABLY INITIATE OVER WRN KY AND IN/IL EARLY THIS EVENING AND
EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT
REACHES CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF CWA AROUND 5Z TO 9Z.

BE SURE TO TURN ON YOUR WEATHER RADIOS THIS EVENING TO REMAIN ALERT
OF SEVERE WEATHER UPDATES.

--AML

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI THRU THU)...

WELL BE PUTTING ALL OUR RESOURCES INTO THE POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD
SEVERE EVENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND HENCEFORTH WILL BE MAKING
NO OR JUST SUBTLE CHANGES IN THIS PERIOD. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM
WEEKEND...TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AT THE START OF THE NEW
WORKWEEK WITH NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.

DK

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

...LARGE AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...

MVFR CIGS HANGING AROUND THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST
WAVE OF PRECIP THAT IMPACTED THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.  EXPECTING
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH LLWS AS
WIND PROFILE REMAINS QUITE STRONG AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE COLD FRONT SITTING OVER EXTREME
WRN IL AND DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MO AT 17Z.  THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 3Z AND 9Z TONIGHT.  SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER HAVE LEFT OUT
SEVERE WINDS IN THE TAFS ATTM. WILL WAIT AND MONITOR SEVERE THREAT
TO SPECIFIC TAF SITES AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCLUDED AN IFR TEMPO GROUP WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH
MVFR CIGS STICKING AROUND EARLY TOMORROW AND THEN GRADUALLY
SCATTERING OUT AND LIFTING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

--AML

&&

LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-190830-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
400 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND MOST OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY TONIGHT WELL AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED.

A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM CELLS MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY BETWEEN 9 PM EDT TONIGHT AND 3
AM EDT FRIDAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT.

SINCE THESE SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE OUTLOOK AREA AT
NIGHT...WE HIGHLY ENCOURAGE YOU TO SET YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO
ALERT MODE SO THAT YOU CAN BE AWAKENED IN THE EVENT THAT A WARNING
IS ISSUED WHILE YOU ARE ASLEEP. MANY SEVERE WEATHER FATALITIES OCCUR
LATE AT NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VERY GUSTY TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK REGION...SO MOTORISTS SHOULD USE CAUTION ON
WEST-TO-EAST ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD KEEP WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

AML/DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-182100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 /1100 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/

GUSTY WINDS TODAY

WE CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL
MAKE DRIVING CHALLENGING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND CAN TIP
GARBAGE CANS AND BREAK SMALL BRANCHES.

PLEASE USE CAUTION OF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ROADS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 64...THE
MARTHA LAYNE COLLINS PARKWAY...AND THE LOUIE B NUNN PARKWAY.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORR TO HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-182100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
1200 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007 /1100 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2007/

...GUSTY WINDS TODAY...

WE CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL
MAKE DRIVING CHALLENGING FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND CAN TIP
GARBAGE CANS AND BREAK SMALL BRANCHES.

PLEASE USE CAUTION OF DRIVING A HIGH PROFILE VEHICLE
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON EAST-WEST ROADS SUCH AS INTERSTATE 64...THE
MARTHA LAYNE COLLINS PARKWAY...AND THE LOUIE B NUNN PARKWAY.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
505 PM EDT THU OCT 18 2007

KYZ023-182145-
HANCOCK-
405 PM CDT THU OCT 18 2007

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST HANCOCK
COUNTY WITHIN THE HOUR...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR MASONVILLE...OR 6 MILES EAST OF OWENSBORO...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

GIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK OF THIS STORM WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT
LEWISPORT AND HAWESVILLE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...SMALL PEA OR MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JARVIS