Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS New Orleans, LA

000 
WWUS54 KLIX 131914
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
213 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

LAC051-131930-
/O.CON.KLIX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-070613T1930Z/
JEFFERSON LA-
213 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR JEFFERSON PARISH...

AT 210 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR ESTELLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JEAN LAFITTE...6 MILES NORTH OF BARATARIA AND 8 MILES NORTH OF
  LAFITTE BY 225 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 2992 9001 2993 9018 2965 9015 2962 9003
      2978 9007

$$

000 
WWUS54 KLIX 131935
SVSLIX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
235 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

LAC051-131945-
/O.EXP.KLIX.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-070613T1930Z/
JEFFERSON LA-
235 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON PARISH EXPIRED AT
230 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF 
JEFFERSON PARISH.

LAT...LON 2992 9001 2993 9018 2965 9015 2962 9003
      2978 9007

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
406 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
EXTREMELY AMPLIFIED RIDGE REACHING WELL INTO THE POLAR REGIONS OF
CANADA THIS MORNING. THIS BY NATURE CAUSES AMPLIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM AND THUS WE SEE A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST.
EVIDENCE OF THE RIDGE IS SEEN VERY WELL BY TEMPS. MID 60 EARLY
MORNING TEMPS ARE FOUND AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN MANITOBA
PROVINCE. EARLY MORNING TEMPS NEAR 40 ARE EVEN SEEN IN THE LAND
OF THE MIDNIGHT SUN. THIS TYPE OF PROLONGED HI MIN TEMPS ARE NOT
BY ANY MEANS NORMAL.

DRY SUBSIDENT HOT AIR IS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE DRY AIR IS CAUSING A TROUGH BOUNDARY TO SET UP
AND HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS FROM THE TENN/NORTH
CAR BORDER TO NEW ORLEANS. DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO PARADE
SOUTHWARD ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG. THE DRY AIR IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...ANY TS THAT DEVELOP WOULD HAVE A VERY STRONG POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERITY.

.CONVECTIVE...
RAN THE RICKS INDEX/PRECIPITATION CALCULATOR ON THE GFS MODEL
SOUNDING OVER NEW ORLEANS VALID 18Z TODAY. THE GFS SOUNDING IS
SIMILAR TO THE NAM SOUNDING WITH ROS OUTPUT USING THE TECHNIQUE MATH
VERY CLOSE TO GFS MANUAL RUN. USING A RANGE OF 344-352K FROM A
SURFACE LIFT WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 89F AND DEWPOINT 71F YIELDS A
A 53 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...PCPN 4.95
INCHES...POTENTIAL PCPN 8.28 INCHES FOR A TEMP BELOW 80F. RICKS
INDEX 126 GIVES A 16 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND DOWNBURSTS OF 46KT
/41-51KT/...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL WITH A CORRESPONDING VIL OF 70
KG/M2. THERE IS A TORNADO THREAT OF F0 INTENSITY AND WATERSPOUTS.
ARKANSAS VIL OF THE DAY 63...HAIL-VIL PENNY AT 74 KG/M2. STORM
PREDICTION CENTER PLACES A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK
SEVERE FOR TODAY AND IS WARRANTED BASED ON OUTPUT. THESE VALUES WILL
BE BASIS IN MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. TECHNIQUE PERFORMANCE
THIS PAST WEEK HAS OUTPERFORMED THE CONVENTIONAL MODELS ON POPS AND
VERIFYING DAILY WITH ISOLATED SEVERE REPORTS WHEN INDICATED. /24

&&

.AVIATION...
A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE NEAR 90F SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINED AROUND
15Z TODAY. GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE INITATION NEAR KGPT
TODAY AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO KMSY AND KBTR TERMINALS BY 18Z.
WILL BE INDICATING G45KT TSRA AS TEMPO 15-18Z AT KGPT...16-19Z AT
KMSY AND 17-20Z AT KBTR AND KMCB.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WIND AND LOW SEAS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE DAYS BEFORE A MORE
EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND BECOMES ESTABLISHED...INCREASING SEA HEIGHTS
A FOOT OR TWO IN THE OUTER WATERS WEST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING
THE WEEKEND. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SHORT-WAVE DISTUBANCES DROPPING INTO
THE GULF FROM MS/AL THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE SQUALL FRONTS EXCEEDING 35 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 93 70 92 70 / 30 10 30 20
BTR 95 74 93 72 / 30 30 30 20
MSY 92 76 90 74 / 40 20 30 20
GPT 91 74 90 73 / 40 20 30 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

24/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-140030-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE-
ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INITIALLY ACROSS
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...THE LOWER PEARL RIVER VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF
COASTAL SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MILES AN HOUR
WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOMB
MISSISSIPPI TO THE BATON ROUGE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS TO 60 MILES AN
HOUR...LARGE HAIL NEAR PENNY SIZE...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

...MARINE HAZARDS...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO MOVE OFFSHORE AND ACROSS TIDAL LAKES
AND BAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS...LARGE
DAMAGING WAVES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY
MANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER WATER.

...HEAVY RAINFALL...
SURFACE BOUNDARIES COULD SET UP AND ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO STALL
OVER ONE AREA...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. HEAVY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE RISK OF A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE EACH
DAY. THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY NEXT
WORK WEEK AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY. PLEASE NOTIFY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER.

22