Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
332 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...06Z SOUNDING AT SLIDELL REVEALED A QUICK
MODIFICATION OF THE ATM WITH CAPE VALUES INCREASING FROM ZERO TO
900 J/KG...HELICITY AROUND 300 M2/S2 AND PW VALUES AROUND 1.2
INCHES. ISOTACH ANALYSIS OF 250MB SHOWED A JET MAX OF 150 KNOTS
OVER WEST TEXAS AND THE NOSE OF THE JET OF 100 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS PLACES THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH THE LEFT-
FRONT QUADRANT AND THE BEST DIVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...A VOLATILE ATM
WILL LIKELY YIELD STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ONE OR TWO TORNADIC STORMS THIS MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WAS POSITIONED FROM
CENTRAL KANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH
EAST AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WILL
ENTRAIN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND OVER US. A 1043MB
HIGH RESIDED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. AS THE LOW PUSHES
EAST...THE HIGH ALONG WITH COLD DENSE AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL DECREASE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD OVER THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ERGO...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THICKNESS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TROUGH ON THE EAST CONUS WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NEAR NORMS OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  36  48  30 /  30  10  10  10
BTR  72  38  50  31 /  30  10  10  10
MSY  74  43  51  35 /  30  10  10  10
GPT  70  40  51  31 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131200-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1100 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN EASTWARD MOVING
SQUALL LINE IMPACTS THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH FROM THE SQUALL LINE AND LARGE HAIL OF PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZED
DIAMETERS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MERGING WITH THE SQUALL LINE OR FROM CELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

IN ADDITION...PERSONS RESIDING IN TEMPORARY TRAILERS MAY WISH TO
REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS AND CONSIDER AVAILABILITY
OF STURDY NEARBY SHELTER LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SEVERE WEATHER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS.

.SEASONAL HAZARDS...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE TIDAL LAKES AND
COASTAL MARSHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HARD FREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
UPPER FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
THE LOWER FLORIDA PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE HAZARD...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND AMATEUR RADIO ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST
RESPONDERS ARE URGED TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT TONIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND CONSIDER STAFFING FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
357 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 AM     TORNADO          WESTWEGO                29.90N 90.14W
02/13/2007                   JEFFERSON          LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY DAMAGES TO STRUCTURES REPORTED. MOBILE HOMES
            OVERTURNED. POSSIBLE INJURIES BUT UNKNOWN NUMBER.

&&

RRICKS