Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
315 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...SOME VERY ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES
TO EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON OVER N TX WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PHASE
TOGETHER THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SWING INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUE. WHILE THE SURFACE
LOW STILL LOOKS TO TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE CWA/PWA...THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE GULF COAST REGION BY TUE
WITH DECENT FORCING UNDERCUTTING THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT UPPER JET IS STILL INDICATED BY THE GFS TO TRAVERSE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT IN GOOD
PROXIMITY WITH THE FORECAST AREA THEREBY ENHANCING THE VERTICAL
PROFILE. THIS LEADS TO A DEFINITE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
TUE AS A SQUALL LINE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
WHILE THE DEFINITE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMIZED INITIALLY DUE TO
THE SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION OFF THE COAST MAY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL HELICITY ENOUGH
TO CAUSE SOME TSTM CELLS TO ROTATE ESPECIALLY WITH ROUGE CELLS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN SQUALL LINE. THE TORNADO THREAT MAY
GET A FURTHER BOOST IF A WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO MOVE WELL ENOUGH
INLAND TO FURTHER ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END TUE AFTERNOON AS
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER
TROUGH SHEARS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING SURFACE WINDS
THOUGH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. STRONG
AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES BY MID WEEK WITH SOME FRIGID
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI. THE WIND FIELD OVER
THE GULF WATERS SHOULD ALSO BECOME REINFORCED BY THIS WEEKEND AS
THE COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  56  71  36  49 /  70  50  10   0
BTR  56  71  38  50 /  70  50  10   0
MSY  58  73  43  51 /  60  60  10   0
GPT  56  69  41  52 /  50  60  10   0
&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131200-
POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-
WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1100 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS AN EASTWARD MOVING
SQUALL LINE IMPACTS THE OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH FROM THE SQUALL LINE AND LARGE HAIL OF PENNY TO GOLF BALL SIZED
DIAMETERS. ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP FROM INDIVIDUAL STORMS
MERGING WITH THE SQUALL LINE OR FROM CELLS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

IN ADDITION...PERSONS RESIDING IN TEMPORARY TRAILERS MAY WISH TO
REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY PLANS AND CONSIDER AVAILABILITY
OF STURDY NEARBY SHELTER LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SEVERE WEATHER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE A COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SEVERE STORMS.

.SEASONAL HAZARDS...
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE TIDAL LAKES AND
COASTAL MARSHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HARD FREEZE MAY IMPACT THE
UPPER FLORIDA PARISHES AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT FREEZE IS LIKELY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND
THE LOWER FLORIDA PARISHES OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA THURSDAY NIGHT.

.MARINE HAZARD...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER AND AMATEUR RADIO ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST
RESPONDERS ARE URGED TO STAY INFORMED ABOUT TONIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND CONSIDER STAFFING FOR ACTIVE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.