Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 152043
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NEC041-152115-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-070715T2115Z/
CUSTER NE-
343 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 338 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 9 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 2 MILE MARKER 250...OR ABOUT 17 MILES
NORTH OF ARNOLD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 92 MILE MARKER 260 BY 400 PM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4174 10025 4173 9979 4135 9976 4140 10023

$$

SPRINGER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 152058
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NEC041-152115-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0303.000000T0000Z-070715T2115Z/
CUSTER NE-
358 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 352 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS REPORTED CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 2 MILE
MARKER 250...OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARNOLD...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 92 MILE MARKER 260 BY 405 PM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4174 10025 4173 9979 4135 9976 4140 10023

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
220 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
    HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM WESTERN ALBERTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE
DAKOTAS...INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN EAST INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. THERE WAS ALSO A DRY LINE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE LOWS WERE CENTERED IN WESTERN ALBERTA...SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED ISOLATED
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE 18Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 2600J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.06 INCH WHICH AGREED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
SATELLITE DERIVED VALUE OF 27MM. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCT
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS.
&&

.SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
    CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SINCE
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. WITH SUCH A HIGH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY AND A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT CAP...SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
61 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80.
    SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BUT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE HEAT
FROM BEING EXTREME.
&&

.MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DISCUSSION...
    TEMPERATURES OF 95-100F ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION
THURSDAY.
    A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING
NEEDED TO GENERATE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...SO WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT PUSHING THE CHANCES TOO HIGH. THE PRESENCE
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
RESULTING IN LOWER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
    EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...VISUAL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROPRIATE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
FOR VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE AS WELL.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPRINGER/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
318 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-162030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
318 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 /218 PM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. A
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS AND
SEVER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
ANOTHER FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS