Severe Thunderstorm Warning 300, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 152001
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
301 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NEC009-152030-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0300.000000T0000Z-070715T2030Z/
BLAINE NE-
301 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN BLAINE COUNTY...

AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUNNING...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREWSTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL SOUTHERN BLAINE COUNTY AT 320 PM CDT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4201 10025 4175 10025 4175 9985 4200 9988

$$

13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
220 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
    HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 18Z SURFACE DATA SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT FROM WESTERN ALBERTA...ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND THE
DAKOTAS...INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND THEN EAST INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI. THERE WAS ALSO A DRY LINE DOWN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO.
SURFACE LOWS WERE CENTERED IN WESTERN ALBERTA...SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED ISOLATED
STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE 18Z NORTH PLATTE SOUNDING SHOWED CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 2600J/KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.06 INCH WHICH AGREED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE
SATELLITE DERIVED VALUE OF 27MM. THE SATELLITE DERIVED PRODUCT
IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DAKOTAS.
&&

.SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
    CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY SINCE
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT. WITH SUCH A HIGH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ENERGY AND A VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT CAP...SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF NEBRASKA HIGHWAY
61 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80.
    SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
BUT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE HEAT
FROM BEING EXTREME.
&&

.MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE DISCUSSION...
    TEMPERATURES OF 95-100F ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME MODERATION
THURSDAY.
    A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING
NEEDED TO GENERATE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IN FACT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DURING THAT TIME. OUR CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME...SO WE WILL ONLY INTRODUCE THE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHOUT PUSHING THE CHANCES TOO HIGH. THE PRESENCE
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL GIVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
RESULTING IN LOWER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...
    EXCEPT FOR IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...VISUAL FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. IT APPEARS THAT A
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IS APPROPRIATE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
FOR VALENTINE AND NORTH PLATTE AS WELL.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SPRINGER/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
518 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-161030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
518 AM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007 /418 AM MDT SUN JUL 15 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE
FROM CODY TO BIG SPRINGS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
THIS MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE IN THE OUTLOOK AREA
DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. WITH MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. ENOUGH SHEAR EXISTS
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SUPER CELL
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES.

IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. OPEN
BURNING SHOULD BE POSTPONED UNTIL COOLER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CLB