Severe Thunderstorm Warning 289, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 132202
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

NEC091-117-171-132215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0289.000000T0000Z-070713T2215Z/
MCPHERSON NE-THOMAS NE-HOOKER NE-
502 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM
CDT(415 PM MDT) FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOOKER...SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS AND
NORTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTIES...

AT 355 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN HOOKER COUNTY...OR ABOUT 16 MILES
NORTH OF TRYON...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4189 10084 4184 10093 4160 10086 4162 10070
      4182 10074

$$

CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
325 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
DISORGANIZED FRONTAL STRUCTURAL AND ENHANCED CU FIELD STRETCHES FROM
KDGW TO KCDR...KVTN AND THEN SHARPLY SOUTH THROUGH KLBF AND KMCK.
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED CU FIELD IS POTENTIAL AREA FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WEAK UA DISTURBANCE IS OVER SERN MT AND
TRANSLATING SWD. SHEAR IS NOT AS DEEPLY LAYERED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY
SUGGESTING LESS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INCLUDED ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT FOR 1500 TO
2500 CAPE...MODEST SHEAR AND NO CIN.

THE NAM12 AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS INDICATE ISOLATED AFTN OR
EVENING TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY
FORCED. OTHERWISE THE FCST IS DRY WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ATM IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CAPPED AT 14 TO 15C AT H7 AND H5 TEMPS WARM TO -5C BY MIDWEEK.
THUS THE ATM WILL GRADUALLY BECOME QUASI BAROTROPIC OR SUBTROPICAL
IN NATURE. ALL DATA SUPPORTS VERY WARM WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE ONLY QUESTION IS HOW WARM.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FCST TO BUILD DIRECTLY OVER NEB NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD PRODUCE THE DEEPEST VERTICAL MIXING AND WARMEST TEMPS
FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THUS THE FCST FOR NEB IS FOR VERY
WARM BUT NOT RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS.

TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY ARE A BLEND OF THE NAM12 TEMPS AND
GUIDANCE. THE NAM12 WAS COOLER THAN THE GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BUT WARMER MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WERE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP TO THE UPPER
90S TO 100 BY MONDAY. THEREAFTER THE FCST TEMPS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
HPC GRIDS WHICH CALL FOR 90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AND CONDITIONS COULD
GRADUALLY DRY OUT SO THAT PERHAPS NEAR 100F WOULD BE COMMON BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT SPECULATIVE AT THIS POINT.
LATER FCSTS COULD VERY WELL BE AIMING FOR THIS MARK. IN FACT THE
MEDIUM RANGE FCST INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER
THE CNTL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY 10 DAYS OUT AND THE 14 DAY
FCST IS FOR THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. THUS ALL INDICATIONS ARE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS ABOUT TO BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE PRESENT IN THE VCNTY OF
WESTERN 098...264 AND 274 TWEB ROUTES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE A THREAT TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT NEAR
THESE ROUTES AND SHOULD BE AVOIDED. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT FOG NEAR 3 MILES
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY NEAR SUNRISE.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-141200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
332 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007 /232 PM MDT FRI JUL 13 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE SANDHILLS INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL IS PRESENT...BUT LIMITED...SO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH THROUGH SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MAY BECOME EXTREME SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE...GRANT AND WESTERN CHERRY
COUNTIES. THE GREATEST FIRE DANGER WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 20
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

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