Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

COLD FRONT WILL SLOW SOME AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MAIN AREA OF ONGOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND 9 PM OR SO THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
VERY UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF CURRENT CONVECTION SO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT CROSSES LATER ON... ALTHOUGH THIS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. WILL DROP POPS OFF QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER AS WE STABILIZE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BUT ENOUGH CLOUD
COVER AND SLIGHT MIXING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL HOPEFULLY
KEEP IT FROM GETTING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. NAM IS RATHER
MOIST BELOW 850 MB THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY... BUT WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT MOST RIGHT NOW. WHATEVER THE CASE SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
THAT WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

WILL HOLD TEMPS UP ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE OFTEN
VERIFIES TOO COOL IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY COOL OFF SOME BEHIND THE FRONT BY TOMORROW... WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND AGAIN
ON SUNDAY. OF COURSE TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL HINGE LARGELY ON THE
AMOUNT OF LINGERING CLOUDS... BUT WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
SUNNIER/WARMER GFS GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL HELP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL START OUT DRY WITH SCATTERED CU DEVELOPING
IN THE AFTERNOON... CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ON WED AS THE NEXT WX SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE LOWER GT LKS.
EXPECT INCREASED CHC FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA WITH
THE INCREASE IN LLVL MOISTURE AND SOLAR HEATING CREATING LOCALIZED
LIFT. FNT TO ENTER THE PICTURE BY FRI WITH BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHRA/TSRA FOR THE EARLY WEEKEND. TEMPS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S EVERY DAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KY. SHRA/TSRA LEADING
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL KY WITH SCATTERED SHRA /TSRA FORMING JUST WEST
OF I-75 AND SCATTERED SHRA FORMING ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN KY. ALL OF EASTERN KY UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT. WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST
50KTS. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF FRONTAL AND TSRA PASSAGE.
CURRENT TIMING HAS TSRA IN SME BY 1830 UTC...LOZ BY 19 UTC AND JKL BY
1920 UTC. BEST TIMING HAS THE LINE OF TSRA ABOUT ONE HR DEEP SO WILL
FCST PREVAILING TSRA FOR THESE TIMES. AFTER THE INITIAL LINE PASSES
THRU LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 23-01 UTC. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SKY WILL RAISE RAPIDLY AND
LOOK FOR CLEARING FOLLOWED BY ONSET OF MVFR IN FOG. AFTER SUNRISE
WILL ONLY PROJECT VFR WITH SCT CU.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 2 PM NORTHWEST OF A MOUNT STERLING TO MOREHEAD
LINE AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

ABE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BIGGS                   37.42N 82.27W
06/08/2007                   PIKE               KY   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HWY 194 BETWEEN BIGGS AND GRAPEVINE

&&

BTERRIZZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT FRI JUN 08 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OGGS STATION            38.02N 83.82W
06/08/2007                   MONTGOMERY         KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREE DOWN ON HWY 713 SE PORTION OF COUNTY

&&

BTERRIZZ