Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

UPDATED APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS TO ADD IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HEADLINE. THOUGHTS BELOW REMAIN UNCHANGED...

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF WELL THIS MORNING
AND IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE MARCHING STEADILY EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TODAY. SBCAPE HAS ALREADY CLIMBED TO AROUND 2000
J/KG OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES PER SPC RUC MESOANALYSIS. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY NEAR 70 AND SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF HEATING
TO GO... INSTABILITY CAN ONLY GO UPWARDS THROUGH THE DAY. UPPER
LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT AND WEAKEN SOME
THROUGH THE DAY... BUT INSTABILITY IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO FUEL
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SERVING AS TRIGGERS.

BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA... SAY NORTH OF A MOUNT VERNON TO JACKSON TO PAINTSVILLE LINE.
THIS AREA IS UNDER THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS AND WILL HAVE MORE
SUNSHINE TO DESTABILIZE AS CU FIELD IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA QUICKLY THIS MORNING. TIMING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
BAND ONLY BRINGS PRECIP INTO THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES AROUND 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIRE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE... SO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER AROUND 1 PM TODAY.

/TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END BY 11 PM THIS EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES AND THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. AREAS
THAT RECEIVE A LOT OF RAIN WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE PRE DAWN AND SUNRISE HOURS. ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...IT WILL BRING US A NICE WEEKEND. THERE WAS A BIT OF
A SPREAD BETWEEN THE ETA AND GFS MOS TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
WEEKEND...SO I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MONDAY WILL START OUT DRY AND QUITE WARM AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIVES THE
PRECIP TO THE COAST. LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME FOR TUESDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE EASES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND AND THE WINDS RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE WITH AN
INCREASE OF RH AND EARLY MORNING FOG.

UPDATED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO HOLD OFF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE
WARM FRONTAL SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DUE TO THE LATE
DAY HEATING...PCPN WILL BE CONVECTIVE AND SOME STORMS MAY GET RATHER
FEISTY WITH STRONG WINDS. BY THURSDAY THE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH A WEAK TROF CROSSING THE GT LKS. THIS
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSRA IN THE LOWER
OH VLY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN KY. SHRA/TSRA LEADING
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL KY WITH SCATTERED SHRA /TSRA FORMING JUST WEST
OF I-75 AND SCATTERED SHRA FORMING ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN KY. ALL OF EASTERN KY UNDER SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT. WILL INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST
50KTS. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE TIMING OF FRONTAL AND TSRA PASSAGE.
CURRENT TIMING HAS TSRA IN SME BY 1830 UTC...LOZ BY 19 UTC AND JKL BY
1920 UTC. BEST TIMING HAS THE LINE OF TSRA ABOUT ONE HR DEEP SO WILL
FCST PREVAILING TSRA FOR THESE TIMES. AFTER THE INITIAL LINE PASSES
THRU LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE
AROUND 23-01 UTC. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE SKY WILL RAISE RAPIDLY AND
LOOK FOR CLEARING FOLLOWED BY ONSET OF MVFR IN FOG. AFTER SUNRISE
WILL ONLY PROJECT VFR WITH SCT CU.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ/ABE
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-091200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1106 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 2 PM NORTHWEST OF A MOUNT STERLING TO MOREHEAD
LINE AND GRADUALLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 11 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON.

ABE