Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY PULLING NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING.
ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY INTO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND. SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING...REACHING A PRETTY JUICY BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT
WITH THIS LINE TO GENERATE SEVERE STORMS. MAIN CONCERN IS STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE ITSELF...HOWEVER THERE ARE
SOME PRETTY GOOD LAPSE RATES ABOVE 700MB WHICH MAY YIELD SOME
LARGE HAIL. ALSO...WILL NEED TO MONITOR ROTATING CELLS MOVING
INLAND OFF APALACHEE BAY. LOW LEVELS ARE MORE UNSTABLE THAN OTHER
RECENT EVENTS SO STORMS MOVING IN OFF THE GULF MAY HOLD THEIR
STRUCTURE FOR A WHILE.

LINE OF STORMS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA BY MORNING AND
LIKELY BE WEAKENING AS DYNAMICS LIFT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER
RIDGE WILL HOLD IN PRETTY STRONG AND KEEP THE COLD FRONT FROM
MAKING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...BOUNDARY LIKELY
TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT KEEP SOME
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA ZONES.

.LONG TERM...NEXT FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH
COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN FOR NEXT WEEK. AIR MASS IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN SO SIGNIFICANT COLD WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. SFC HIGH TO
BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND SOME COASTAL SHOWERS RETURNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS DOMINATE AT THIS TIME WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS
AT SSI. SLY WINDS AROUND 12G20KT NOTED AT AREA OBS. EXPECT
DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
THE AREA WITH IFR GENERALLY EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
THE 21Z-06Z TIME FRAME. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE SW
TONIGHT ENSURING A MOIST PROFILE  AND A THREAT OF FOG/LOW CIGS AGAIN
WITH LIFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...GRADUALLY INCREASING SFC WINDS NOTED AT BUOYS WITH SEAS
ABOUT 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAMWRF. SEEING ALREADY
GUSTY WINDS OVER 20 KT AT 41012 WILL HOIST SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON SAT WEAKEN PRES
GRADIENT. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES SUN-SUN NIGHT WITH SCA CONDS
POSSIBLE AGAIN PRE AND POST-FRONTAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  76  58  73 /  70   0  20  50
SSI  63  74  61  70 /  60  10  30  40
JAX  61  77  60  75 /  70  10  30  40
SGJ  66  78  62  75 /  50  20  40  50
GNV  61  79  60  75 /  70  20  30  40
OCF  62  81  61  77 /  60  30  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

PUBLIC...CAMP
MARINE/FIRE WX/AVIATION....SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-060900-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
301 PM EST FRI JAN 5 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST TONIGHT FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED THIS
LATE AFTERNOON...AND EAST COAST LOCATIONS WILL BE AFFECTED DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

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