Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS...THE
APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND INTERSECTING
BOUNDARIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE EXTENSIVE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALREADY IN PLACE (WHICH MAY QUICKLY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE)...BUT CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED/PULSE SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE IMPULSES
COUPLED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO
OUR CWA BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OUR GEORGIA ZONES. THUS...HAVE
INCLUDED N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT
IN GEORGIA TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST FL
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WED-THU AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN STRONGER MOISTURE/HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FLORIDA ZONES. BY FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...AND HAVE INCLUDED HOMOGENEOUS CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CHALLENGING SET OF 18Z TAFS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE GREATEST THREAT TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING AT
ISSUANCE...WENT WITH AN INITIAL TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH 22Z. THEREAFTER...THE THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE STABILIZED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ONLY SHRA WITH VCTS. THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT A GIVEN HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
CONCISE TAF SET IN TACK AND AMEND AS NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONLY REAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH OF A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS. GIVEN
ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR...FEEL THE FLOW WILL BE CHAOTIC
ENOUGH TO KEEP A TRUE SEABREEZE FROM FORMING...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT
BECOMES A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  60
SSI  76  88  76  87 /  40  60  40  60
JAX  73  91  74  90 /  40  60  50  60
SGJ  75  89  75  88 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  73  90  74  90 /  40  60  50  60
OCF  72  90  73  90 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/DEESE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-290000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WET MICROBURST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ040-282115-
MARION-
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARION COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM
EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR REDDICK TO OCALA AND
BELLEVIEW...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SPARR...REDDICK...OCALA AIRPORT...OCALA...
LOWELL...BURBANK...ANTHONY...SANTOS...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES AND
LYNNE THROUGH 515 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...
EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ021-022-282115-
COLUMBIA-SUWANNEE-
437 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN
SUWANNEE AND SOUTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL
HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 515 PM...

AT 437 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 9 MILES WEST OF COLUMBIA...OR 10 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ICHETUCKNEE SPRINGS STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND COLUMBIA...
WATERTOWN AND LAKE CITY THROUGH 515 PM. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

GAZ136-152-282130-
BRANTLEY-WAYNE-
451 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WESTERN BRANTLEY
AND SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 451 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF HORTENSE...OR 8
MILES EAST OF PATTERSON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SCREVEN AND HORTENSE
THROUGH 530 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE

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