Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS. THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS...THE
APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND INTERSECTING
BOUNDARIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT WILL BE EXTENSIVE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ALREADY IN PLACE (WHICH MAY QUICKLY
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE)...BUT CERTAINLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ISOLATED/PULSE SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
SECONDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE IMPULSES
COUPLED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TUESDAY...AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH INTO
OUR CWA BY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OUR GEORGIA ZONES. THUS...HAVE
INCLUDED N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30 PERCENT
IN GEORGIA TO AROUND 60 PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN-MOST FL
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...WILL MAINTAIN N-S DISTRIBUTION OF POPS WED-THU AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN STRONGER MOISTURE/HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS
OUR FLORIDA ZONES. BY FRIDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...AND HAVE INCLUDED HOMOGENEOUS CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...A CHALLENGING SET OF 18Z TAFS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN THE GREATEST THREAT TIME PERIOD. GIVEN ACTIVITY WAS ONGOING AT
ISSUANCE...WENT WITH AN INITIAL TEMPO GROUP FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH 22Z. THEREAFTER...THE THINKING IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
HAVE STABILIZED ENOUGH TO RESULT IN ONLY SHRA WITH VCTS. THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT A GIVEN HOWEVER...WITH ADDITIONAL UPPER ENERGY PROGGED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE
CONCISE TAF SET IN TACK AND AMEND AS NECESSARY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...ONLY REAL DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS IS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH OF A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS. GIVEN
ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY ON RADAR...FEEL THE FLOW WILL BE CHAOTIC
ENOUGH TO KEEP A TRUE SEABREEZE FROM FORMING...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...IT
BECOMES A RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
WESTERLY FLOW REGIME IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  91  73  91 /  40  60  30  60
SSI  76  88  76  87 /  40  60  40  60
JAX  73  91  74  90 /  40  60  50  60
SGJ  75  89  75  88 /  40  60  50  60
GNV  73  90  74  90 /  40  60  50  60
OCF  72  90  73  90 /  40  60  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/DEESE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
116 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-290000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
112 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 599 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS...

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
AND THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...
LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WET MICROBURST
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ECZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ023-GAZ150-163-164-281900-
BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-WARE-
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
BAKER...SOUTHERN CHARLTON...SOUTHEAST CLINCH AND SOUTHERN WARE
COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 220 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF TAYLOR...OR 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FARGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND COUNCIL AND THE
OKEFENOKEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO
ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
221 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ025-033-281900-
DUVAL-ST. JOHNS-
221 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN ST. JOHNS
AND SOUTHEASTERN DUVAL COUNTIES FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 221 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF DURBIN...OR 7 MILES
WEST OF GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND SAWGRASS...PALM
VALLEY...DURBIN...BAYARD...GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...SOUTH PONTE
VEDRA BEACH...BAKERSVILLE...VILANO BEACH...SAINT AUGUSTINE AND
ANASTASIA THROUGH 300 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45
TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. IF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OCCURS A
WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
233 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

FLZ038-281915-
FLAGLER-
233 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN FLAGLER
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 233 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 5 MILES WEST OF PALM COAST...MOVING SOUTH AT
15 MPH. THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS AROUND PALM
COAST...ESPANOLA...BUNNELL AND FLAGLER BEACH THROUGH 315 PM EDT. HAIL
UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

CARROLL

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