Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1046 PM CST THU JAN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
20. CONDITIONS WERE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT FURTHER
NORTH. A LINE OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING NEAR INTERSTATE 55 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST. INCREASING WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE HAS
MADE DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO INCLUDE THE
NEW COUNTIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       57  70  52  68 / 100  11   5  53
MERIDIAN      60  70  50  69 / 100  28   4  49
VICKSBURG     55  69  52  67 / 100   8   7  57
HATTIESBURG   62  72  51  73 / 100  30  10  49
NATCHEZ       55  69  55  71 / 100   5   5  59
GREENVILLE    53  63  51  62 / 100  12  13  41
GREENWOOD     57  65  52  66 / 100  13  12  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
311 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
052111-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
311 PM CST THU JAN 04 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRY AND SHIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH INTO
SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. WITH THIS WARM FRONT DRIFTING
NORTH ALLOWING DEEP MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THIS
AREA...COUPLED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF WIND SHEAR IN
PLACE...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING.  THE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY
STORM OVER THIS AREA WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

FURTHER NORTH...THE RETURN OF DEEPER GULF MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...MAINLY ALONG A WINNSBORO
LOUISIANA TO HAZLEHURST MISSISSIPPI TO QUITMAN LINE.  THESE
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH.

...FLOODING...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATER THIS EVENING ...AND DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT.
 TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. PONDING WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS OR AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER LONG PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO THE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING IS SHAPING UP FOR
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARKLAMISS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER SOME OF THE SAME AREA
THAT HAS RECENTLY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED COD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN
SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
CONTINUE UNTIL THE THE WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY.
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.