Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1025 AM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

.UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF STORMS ACROSS LA HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING
AS EXPECTED WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW IN EAST TX. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BREAKING UP THIS MORNING
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST LA THIS AFTERNOON AND
PUSH INTO WESTERN MS AND SOUTHEAST AR BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVER TX WILL PUSH TOWARD THE AREA BUT
SHOULD NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TONIGHT.

DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS BUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WERE BREAKING UP THIS MORNING SO
ATTENTION WILL TURN TO WHERE THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD AFFECT KGLH...KGWO
AND KJAN.

&&

SCW

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GOOD CHANCE OF SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND A SOUTHERN STREAM
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW TEXAS THAT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW HELPED GENERATE AN MCS OVER EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THAT HAS SPREAD SOME EXHAUST CLOUD COVER INTO OUR CWA AND A WEAK
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR CWA. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SLOW
WARMING THIS MORNING BUT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY GIVE CONVECTION A
JUMP START EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER OUR REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. WERE ALREADY STARTING OUT THIS MORNING WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S AT MOST SITES. JAN 00Z THU SOUNDING HAD A PW
OF 1.31IN AND PWS WILL SURGE ABOVE AND INCH AND A HALF BY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE SFC DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID 60S. AFTERNOON
HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 800-1000J/KG OVER THE CWA.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER IN THE EAST...MODELS PROG
30-40KTS 0-6KM SHEAR IN OUR SW BY 00Z FRI WHICH WL HELP SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS. WL ADD MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS IN OUR HWO FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND
PARISHES. PROVIDED ANOTHER MCS DOESNT DEVELOP TO OUR SW AND MOVE
INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING...SHOULD SEE A DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BUT WL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH NIGHT. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER OUR CWA FRIDAY AND COMBINE
WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE DEEP CONVECTION OVER OUR WHOLE CWA.
AGAIN THIS RUN THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FROM SOME FEEDBACK AND
DEVELOPS A QPF BOMB OVER SOUTHERN MS FRIDAY LIMITING QPF IN THE
NORTH. OTHER THAN QPF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED LITTLE SPREAD AND STUCK
CLOSE TO LATEST MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
/22/

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY PIVOT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO A
DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE. MEANWHILE A HUMONGOUS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES WITH 549/550
PRESSURE CENTERS FORECAST BY THE EURO/GFS. THE DEEP WRN U.S. SYSTEM
WILL MAINTAIN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED BUT DETAILS IN THE PATTERN WILL PRODUCE DIFFERING WEATHER
SOLUTIONS FOR DIFFERENT DAYS.

LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY SELY THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
MAINTAINING A HEALTHY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD. MODELS DRAG A WEAK
WAVE ALONG THE ERN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY...PRODUCING
DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES FROM 1500-2500 SWRN ZONES.
WILL INCREASE MOS POPS CENTRAL AND SOME SRN ZONES TO SLIGHT CHANCE
(HIGHEST ENSEMBLE POPS CENTRAL MS AROUND 40%). COVERAGE LOOKS
GENERALLY ISOLATED CONSIDERING UPPER RIDGING BUT CONVECTION THAT
DOES POP COULD BE FAIRLY HEALTHY. EURO AND UKMET DEVELOP UPPER
RIDGING FARTHER E SAT INTO SUN FOR STRONGER CAPPING BUT THEY ALSO
MAINTAIN MOIST 850 LAYER FOR A CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 MANY LOCATIONS. LITTLE OR NO
SHEAR OR LOW LEVEL FORCING NOTED HOWEVER. THE AIR MASS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN A WEAK BROAD TROUGH WORKS ITS
WAY FROM THE ERN GULF ALONG THE SRN FRINGES OF THE UPPER RIDGE.
THIS...ALONG WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE
WEST...PINCHES THE UPPER RIDGE AND TILTS IT OVER THE APPALACHIANS...
RESULTING IN 850/700 RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ARKLAMISS FROM THE NE.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED MOS ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. LOWS
RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN CLIMO CONSIDERING SLY FETCH AND UPPER
RIDGING. DO HAVE SLIGHT CONCERN THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS MAY NOT BE
QUITE WARM ENOUGH FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IF RIDGING HANGS IN STRONG
ENOUGH BUT WILL FOLLOW CURRENT MOS FOR NOW. /03/

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE SOUTH AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
AREAWIDE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL CONTINUE ALONG HIGHWAY 82 THROUGH
EARLY MORNING. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHRA/TSRA FROM W TO E 16Z-22Z AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IN W TX DRAWS CLOSER TO OUR AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       82  64  79  64 /  42  60  49  22
MERIDIAN      85  61  79  61 /  28  33  28  36
VICKSBURG     81  65  80  64 /  61  63  57  14
HATTIESBURG   84  64  81  64 /  37  27  42  30
NATCHEZ       80  65  78  65 /  70  62  56  12
GREENVILLE    81  65  78  63 /  60  66  54  14
GREENWOOD     83  65  79  62 /  43  62  48  21

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION: 22
LONG TERM: 03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
130 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041830-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
130 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE AREA.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME IN TWO
ROUNDS.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AFFECTING
HATTIESBURG...LAUREL AND MERIDIAN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN INTO WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE WINNSBORO...VICKSBURG...AND JACKSON.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

...FLOODING...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF ROADS AND FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY MORNING...MAY
10TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
134 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
05/03/2007  E70 MPH          LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WILSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CDT THU MAY 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     HAIL             BROOKHAVEN              31.58N 90.45W
05/03/2007  E0.88 INCH       LINCOLN            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

WILSON