Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WWUS53 KIND 200032
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
832 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

INC011-023-107-157-200045-
/O.CON.KIND.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-070820T0045Z/
BOONE-CLINTON-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-
832 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BOONE...NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPPECANOE COUNTIES...

AT 828 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL 
AND GUSTY WIND. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLARKS HILL...OR ABOUT 
12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CRAWFORDSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLFAX BY 840 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4030 8677 4026 8660 4010 8666 4010 8667
      4008 8667 4007 8667 4010 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 286DEG 21KT 4018 8673

$$
SALLY

000 
WWUS53 KIND 200046
SVSIND

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
846 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

INC011-023-107-157-200056-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-070820T0045Z/
BOONE-CLINTON-MONTGOMERY-TIPPECANOE-
846 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BOONE...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN 
TIPPECANOE COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 845 PM EDT...

THE STORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 4030 8677 4026 8660 4010 8666 4010 8667
      4008 8667 4007 8667 4010 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0032Z 286DEG 21KT 4018 8673

$$

SALLY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
648 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.

WARM FNT REMAINS JUST N OF THE FA THIS EVE AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY
THERE OR MOVE A LITTLE N. BULK OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN OCCURING N OF
THE FNT WITHIN 310K UPGLIDE AND CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS LESS THAN
30 MB. BASES ON MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS...THE MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WL CONT TO REMAIN N OF THE FA UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
THE REMANTS OF ERIN MOV ACRS. PIECES OF ENERGY MOVING ACRS FM ERIN
WL KEEP A FEW RWS AND POSSIBLY TRWS AROUND TNGT ESP AT LAF. IN
FACT...STG TRW ACRS WARREN CO AT 2247Z LOOKS LIKE IT MAY CLIP LAF IN
THE 00Z-02Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS RULED S OF THE FNT AND
LIKE THE MOS WHICH KEEPS IT THAT WAY. ALSO...DONT EXPECT FOG WITH
AT LEAST A FAIRLY THICK AC DECK EXPECTED OVERNGT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN UNTIL MID WEEK.

AT 18Z A WARM FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA /FA/. REMNANTS OF ERIN WERE ACROSS OK. MOST TSRA ACTIVITY WAS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN IL...IN...AND OH.

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. NO MODEL WAS DOING VERY WELL WITH PRECIP
ACROSS NRN IN...AND ALL HAD SOME ISSUES INITIALIZING REMNANTS OF
ERIN. ALSO...MODELS ALSO SUFFER SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES /PRECIP
BULLSEYES FOR EXAMPLE/...MOST NOTABLY THE GFS BY 42 HOURS. WILL USE
A BLEND OF MODELS TAKING OUT FEEDBACK ISSUES.

BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE N OF THE FA
TONIGHT...CLOSER TO THE FRONT. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS ARE TAKING
MOISTURE ACROSS MO NE INTO NRN IL THEN E ACROSS NRN IN. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE AS UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS THIS MOVEMENT. THUS HIGHEST
POPS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE FA. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ACROSS THE FA...SO THREAT FOR
SHOWERS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ACROSS AREAS
NORTH OF INDIANAPOLIS...WITH SOME CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FAR NRN
FA. CHANCE POPS LOOK BEST ELSEWHERE. HEAVY RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE
CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE FA CLOSER TO STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. CLOUDS
AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR MAV NUMBERS.

ON MONDAY UPPER TROF /REMNANTS OF ERIN/ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS AMPLE MOISTURE
MOVES IN WITH THE SYSTEM. OVERALL SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES AS WELL
WITH THE UPPER TROF. THUS FEEL LIKELY POPS LOOK BEST ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA. WITH RAIN EXPECTED SEE NO REASON TO CUT MAV POPS IN THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS LAF AREA SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL THERE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS WILL
LEAD TO A QUICK RISE IN TEMPS. TEMPS TODAY ARE IN THE UPPER 80S
WHERE THE SUN BROKE THRU FOR A TIME. THUS THE WARM MAV CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN
WARM MAV AND COOLER MET MOST AREAS.

SYSTEM EXITS MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ERN FA AND CHANCE WRN
FA AS SYSTEM PULLS OUT. ON TUESDAY NO STRONG FORCING AROUND BUT
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE UNSTABLE AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO ANY WAVE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED DRY AND HOT FORECAST FOR THEN. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS FA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD SUCCEED BY SUNDAY
AS RIDGE GETS PUSHED SOUTH.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...CS
AVIATION...MK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>043-201945-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-201945-
PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
343 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007 /243 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE STRONG ON MONDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)