River Flood Warning 3, NWS Indianapolis, IN

000 
WGUS83 KIND 211546
FLSIND
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
INDIANA...
 
  WABASH RIVER 

PORTIONS OF THE LOWER WABASH AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN RECEIVED 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON MONDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH TO TWO AND
A HALF INCHES BEING COMMON.

THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CAUSE MINOR RISES ON THE UPPER AND LOWER
WABASH RIVER...BUT RIVER LEVELS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE.

SOME BACKWATER MAY COLLECT BEHIND SOME LEVEE SYSTEMS BUT AT THIS TIME
SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...AND THE FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE WABASH RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SAFETY MESSAGE...MOTORISTS SHOULD NEVER DRIVE INTO FLOOD WATER. 
TURN AROUND AND GO ANOTHER WAY. ALWAYS KEEP CHILDREN AWAY FROM 
FLOODED AREAS. 

FOR DETAILED FLOOD INFORMATION GO TO WEATHER.GOV/IND ON THE WEB.  
FROM THE BLUE MENU BAR ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE PAGE...CLICK ON RIVERS
AND LAKES.

INC045-121-157-165-171-211616-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070824T1800Z/
/LAFI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WABASH RIVER AT LAFAYETTE.
* AT 10:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.7 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 10.0 FEET 
  EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


$$

INC045-121-165-171-211616-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070825T0640Z/
/CVGI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WABASH RIVER AT COVINGTON.
* AT  7:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.6 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 14.2 FEET 
  THURSDAY EVENING.


$$

INC121-165-167-211616-
/O.CAN.KIND.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070825T1342Z/
/MTZI3.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1146 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE WABASH RIVER AT MONTEZUMA.
* AT  9:00 AM TUESDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.8 FEET. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 14.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT 11.4 FEET 
  FRIDAY MORNING.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
723 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.

TODAYS WEATHER MAKER WILL BE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. IT SHOULD ACT TO CREATE FAIRLY GOOD COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE MORNING
THROUGH 16Z TODAY JUST EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN MID
CLOUDS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT COVERAGE
VERY LOW. THIS AFTERNOON STARTED CB IN THE TAFS AFTER 16Z AND VCTS
AFTER 18-21Z THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 02-04Z
THIS EVENING. GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS ON BOTH CIGS AND VSBY. A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF IFR
TOWARDS 12Z ON TUESDAY BUT THE CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
GO WITH JUST A GENERAL LIGHT FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING SUNDAY EVENING THERE WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NRN SECTIONS. THESE LEFT NUMEROUS BOUNDRIES FOR
THUNDERSTORM DVLPMT. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH TNGT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME WORKED OVER DUE TO
THE TSTMS DURING THE EVENING. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH UNTIL MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON SO ONLY WENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MODELS HAVE A VERY STRONG VORT CENTER MOVING ALONG THE FNT. IT MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS 0-3 KM REL
HELICITY JUMPS TO 457 LATE THIS AFTN. THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AND A FEW HOURS SLOWER. PRECIP WATER IS HIGH ARND 2 INCHES. WITH
THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND ABUNDANT MSTR WILL GO WITH THE MUCH HIGHER GFS
AND NGM POPS. CANT SEE HOW WE COULD ONLY HAVE A CHC AS NAM HAS.
WILL MENTION STRONG STORMS PSBL THIS AFTN AND EVE WHICH FOLLOWS THE
SLGT RISK. THE 850 MB TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM WHAT THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE LAST SVRL DAYS. THIS HIGHER THEN FCSTD TEMPS ON SUNDAY
WERE DUE TO LACK OF RAIN AND MORE SUNSHINE. SINCE NOT EXPECTING
TSTMS UNTIL NEAR END OF MAX HEATING HAVE INCREASED TEMPS SOME ABOVE
GFS BUT NOT AS HIGH AS NGM AND NAM. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS
TODAY THEN YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP INCREASE. THE VERY
UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN OVER INDIANA THROUGH THE EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT THE HELICITY VALUES REALLY DROP OFF TO 70-80. ALL GUID POPS
ALSO DECREASE AFT 06Z. WILL GO WITH THIS AND DCRS POPS TO CHC AFT
MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER WEAKER S/W WILL MOVE THROUGH INDIANA ON TUE. THIS
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS GOING. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE MORE SS SO
WITH THE FLOW FROM THE SW CONTINUING HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A LITTLE.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE NE AS A WARM FRONT ON TUE. IT WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CHC POPS DURING THE DAY. IT WILL THEN MOVE FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE TO ALLOW MORE STABLE AIR TO MOVE IN ON TUE NGT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY...SO
HAVE CONTINUED DRY AND HOT FORECAST FOR THEN. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
WORK ACROSS FA BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND SHOULD SUCCEED BY SUNDAY
AS RIDGE GETS PUSHED SOUTH.

PUBLIC...SH

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

INZ021-028>031-035>043-210830-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-
429 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MILES AN
HOUR AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

INZ044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-210830-
PARKE-PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
429 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007 /329 AM CDT MON AUG 20 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MILES AN HOUR
AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.

LIGHTNING IS A THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

HAINES