Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
744 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK EAST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
LINE OF CONVECTION DROPPING SE HAS FILLED IN AND IS HOLDING
TOGETHER AS IT RECEIVES SUPPORT FROM H5 VORT. INCREASED POPS IN THE
E TO LIKELY AND ADDED A SLIGHT CHC IN THE W. HAVE THE LINE TIMED TO
THE OH RIVER AROUND 02Z.

SITES

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE SE THIRD AS ON
GOING CONVECTION IN NE OH TRACKS SW. CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL TRACK FAR ENUF W TO AFFECT
THE REGION WASNT VERY HIGH...SO ONLY CARRIED A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
NOW.

S/W PUSHES SW OF THE REGION BY 06Z AND WITH SETTING OF THE SUN
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SKIES SHOULD GO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER S/W DROPS SWINGS AROUND H5 LOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD AND
ACROSS THE OH VLY ON THU. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY...THE BEST BEING IN THE SE. CARRIED SLIGHT CHC POPS
AGAIN FOR THU. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH SUNSET FOR
THU NGT.

NO ORGANIZE KICKER ON FRI. ALSO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
LOOKS LESS...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR FRI.

MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED SQUIRRELLY. CVG WAS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN DAY AND CMH. WENT WITH LOWS THAT WERE SIMILAR
IN STRUCTURE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NW. MAV
WAS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MET OR FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH ON
THU. FELT THE MAV WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE CU
TOMORROW WITH S/W...SO WENT A MAV/MET BLEND. MUCH COOLER H8 TEMPS
WORK IN THU NGT. SAW NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE COOLER MAV LOWS.
FINALLY TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY H8 COLD POOL REMAINS OVER
CWA. GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY LOWER THAN PREV FCST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

SITES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION BUT THE H5
RIDGE IS GETTING SQUEEZED AND BEATEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING FRONT
LATER SATURDAY THAT WILL WASH OUT OVERTOP OF CWA ON SUN...AND THEN
LIFT NE AS A WMFNT OVERNIGHT SUN. DYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THIS TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT BACK OVER THE REGION FROM
THE N AND THE S...AND YOU ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE
WITH MEAN DOWNWARD MOTION. WAS INCLINED TO LEAVE FCST DRY WHICH IS
GOOD WITH THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER...BUT LOW
CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OH APPEARED PRUDENT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUN. THIS HAS ME CUT BACK ON TEMPS AS WELL.

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AFTER
THIS WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION STARTING
SUN NIGHT. THIS BUILDS ON MON AND THEN GIVES WAY ON TUESDAY AS A SFC
COLD FRONT AND H5 TROF COMBINE TO GIVE THE REGION THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ON TUES NIGHT THAN IT HAS HAD IN THE PAST WHILE. THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED.

FRANKS

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN
OHIO THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE
STRONGEST STORM WILL LIKELY STAY E/SE OF KCMH AND KLCK...BUT BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
01Z. ELSEWHERE...HAVE ADDED VCTS 01Z-03Z AT KDAY...AND THE OTHER
TERMINALS HAVE JUST CI.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER 18Z...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
653 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

KYZ091>093-096>100-OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-
142300-
BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
653 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO
AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089-090-094-095-OHZ026-034-035-
142300-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-OWEN-GRANT-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-
653 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND WEST CENTRAL
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.