Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Wilmington, OH

000 
WWUS51 KILN 132314
SVSILN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
713 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

OHC089-132330-
/O.CON.KILN.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-070613T2330Z/
LICKING OH-
713 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT
FOR LICKING COUNTY...

AT 708 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAD WEAKENED BUT WAS STILL CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR NEWARK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEWARK...HEATH...GRANVILLE...GRANVILLE SOUTH...PATASKALA...HEBRON AND
BEECHWOOD TRAILS.

IN ADDITION...INTERSTATE 70 AT STATE ROUTE 13 AND ETNA ARE NEAR THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER 
NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 4016 8223 4020 8250 3995 8275 3993 8230
      4004 8224

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
458 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK EAST WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS BUILT FAR ENUF W ON LAKE BREEZE THAT ADDED AN
ISOLATED TSTM TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL OH THIS EVENING.

SITES

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN THIS EVENING WILL BE IN THE SE THIRD AS ON
GOING CONVECTION IN NE OH TRACKS SW. CONFIDENCE THAT THE
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL TRACK FAR ENUF W TO AFFECT
THE REGION WASNT VERY HIGH...SO ONLY CARRIED A 20 TO 30 POP FOR
NOW.

S/W PUSHES SW OF THE REGION BY 06Z AND WITH SETTING OF THE SUN
EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIE BETWEEN 00Z-03Z. SKIES SHOULD GO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER S/W DROPS SWINGS AROUND H5 LOW CENTERED OFF CAPE COD AND
ACROSS THE OH VLY ON THU. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME
INSTABILITY...THE BEST BEING IN THE SE. CARRIED SLIGHT CHC POPS
AGAIN FOR THU. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD END QUICKLY WITH SUNSET FOR
THU NGT.

NO ORGANIZE KICKER ON FRI. ALSO INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION
LOOKS LESS...SO KEPT PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR FRI.

MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT LOOKED SQUIRRELLY. CVG WAS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN DAY AND CMH. WENT WITH LOWS THAT WERE SIMILAR
IN STRUCTURE TO LAST NIGHT...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPS IN THE NW. MAV
WAS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MET OR FWC NUMBERS FOR HIGH ON
THU. FELT THE MAV WAS A LITTLE TOO WARM. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE CU
TOMORROW WITH S/W...SO WENT A MAV/MET BLEND. MUCH COOLER H8 TEMPS
WORK IN THU NGT. SAW NO REASON TO ARGUE WITH THE COOLER MAV LOWS.
FINALLY TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY H8 COLD POOL REMAINS OVER
CWA. GUIDANCE IS A CATEGORY LOWER THAN PREV FCST. ADJUSTED TEMPS
CLOSE TO THE MAV GUIDANCE.

SITES

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION BUT THE H5
RIDGE IS GETTING SQUEEZED AND BEATEN DOWN BY AN APPROACHING FRONT
LATER SATURDAY THAT WILL WASH OUT OVERTOP OF CWA ON SUN...AND THEN
LIFT NE AS A WMFNT OVERNIGHT SUN. DYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THIS TIME FRAME AS SFC HIGH BUILDS RIGHT BACK OVER THE REGION FROM
THE N AND THE S...AND YOU ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE H5 RIDGE
WITH MEAN DOWNWARD MOTION. WAS INCLINED TO LEAVE FCST DRY WHICH IS
GOOD WITH THE PERSISTENT PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY UNDER...BUT LOW
CHANCE POPS IN CENTRAL OH APPEARED PRUDENT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUN. THIS HAS ME CUT BACK ON TEMPS AS WELL.

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN AFTER
THIS WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION STARTING
SUN NIGHT. THIS BUILDS ON MON AND THEN GIVES WAY ON TUESDAY AS A SFC
COLD FRONT AND H5 TROF COMBINE TO GIVE THE REGION THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN ON TUES NIGHT THAN IT HAS HAD IN THE PAST WHILE. THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED AT THIS TIME AND SIGNIFICANT DRYING
IS NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED.

FRANKS

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DIURNAL HIGH
BASED CUMULUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND THEN REDEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING
THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE COLUMBUS TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIG WX EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-140915-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
508 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RYAN