Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
745 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

.AVIATION /00Z-24Z/...
STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DIMINISH BY 04Z WHEN DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO KEPT MVFR CEILINGS
THROUGH THE FORECAST. BACKED OFF ON SHOWERS LATE IN THE FORECAST
SINCE THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE LOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ILN CURRENTLY GOING INTO SEVERE OPERATIONS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP
THIS BRIEF. TOR WATCH 191 ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 PM.
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WRN CWA AND IS
BEGINNING TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATES CAPE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODELS HAD INDICATED...LIKELY DUE TO BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATES MORE MIDLEVEL DRY AIR THAN
MODELS HAD FORECAST...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH FOR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. COLD FRONT TIMED INTO WRN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AND
OUT OF EASTERN CWA BY 06Z...WITH TSRA THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST TOMORROW AND EXPECT OVC
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT VERY
FAVORABLE SO WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST. WILL
THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
239 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
239 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

...TORNADO WATCH 191 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 TORNADO WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
536 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     CONNERSVILLE            39.66N 85.14W
04/26/2007  E60 MPH          FAYETTE            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0430 PM     HAIL             FORT LORAMIE            40.35N 84.37W
04/26/2007  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SIDNEY              40.29N 84.22W
04/26/2007                   SHELBY             OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE LIMB DOWNED ACROSS RAILROAD TRACKS NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF STATE ROUTE 47 AND HARDIN-WAPOK ROAD.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W JACKSON CENTER      40.44N 84.08W
04/26/2007                   SHELBY             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FIVE POWER POLES DOWNED IN A ROADWAY.

&&

RYAN