Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
254 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ILN CURRENTLY GOING INTO SEVERE OPERATIONS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP
THIS BRIEF. TOR WATCH 191 ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 10 PM.
LINE OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR WRN CWA AND IS
BEGINNING TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS. 18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATES CAPE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODELS HAD INDICATED...LIKELY DUE TO BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1000 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON SO EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION...18Z ILN SOUNDING INDICATES MORE MIDLEVEL DRY AIR THAN
MODELS HAD FORECAST...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP A WATCH FOR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. COLD FRONT TIMED INTO WRN CWA BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z AND
OUT OF EASTERN CWA BY 06Z...WITH TSRA THREAT DIMINISHING AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW LEVELS ARE VERY MOIST TOMORROW AND EXPECT OVC
SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS...CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY.

HAWBLITZEL

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT VERY
FAVORABLE SO WILL JUST KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST. WILL
THEN TRY TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
SOUTHWEST OHIO BREAKING OUT IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT
LIFTING N OF DAY AHEAD OF SFC LOW OVER S CNTRL IL. TD/S HAVE
INCREASED INTO LWR 60S WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. EXPECT
CAPES TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG. GIVEN THIS INSTBY AND WITH FAVORABLE
BL TO 6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS EXPECT TO SEE ORGANIZED TSTMS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
TAF SITES AROUND 00Z AND THRU CMH/LCK AROUND 03Z. MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH
THE UPPER LOW PASSING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATING ABUNDANT LO LEVEL MSTR AND THE POSSIBILITY
EXISTS FOR CIGS BLW 1000 FEET LATE TNGT AND FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT PREVAILING CIGS BTWN 1000 AND 1500 FEET.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
239 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-271845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
239 PM EDT THU APR 26 2007

...TORNADO WATCH 191 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

 TORNADO WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.