Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 300113
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSC015-035-191-300645-
BUTLER KS-SUMNER KS-COWLEY KS-
808 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT FOR
COWLEY...SUMNER AND BUTLER COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAIN 
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAS FALLEN SINCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS 
EASTERN SUMNER AND COWLEY COUNTIES. 

AS OF 802 PM CDT...NUMEROUS ROADS WERE CLOSED IN COWLEY 
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEXTER...DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.

AS OF 800 PM CDT...THE SLATE CREEK IN SUMNER COUNTY WAS OUT OF ITS 
BANKS JUST NORTHWEST OF GEUDA SPRINGS. IN ADDITION...THE SALT CREEK 
AT GEUDA SPRINGS WAS OUT OF ITS BANKS.  

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3698 9780 3699 9651 3747 9651 3809 9652
      3808 9714 3748 9714 3746 9779

$$

CARUSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
323 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-MON:

FLOODING AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THE MAIN ISSUE THIS
PERIOD. WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOWS VIRTUALLY
NO CHANGE IN LONG WAVE PATTERN AND MODEL TRENDS SHOW LITTLE
CHANGE LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM...SWATH OF MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH INCREASE LIKELY AS BAROCLINIC ZONE
TIGHTENS. ANTICIPATE LOW WILL MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF THE OK/KS
BORDER THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. WITH FLOODING ALREADY UNDERWAY...SITUATION WILL NOT
IMPROVE AND LIKELY GET WORSE. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALSO EXTENDED IT UNTIL 0000 UTC SUN FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THIS WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO SUN. AS FOR QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...ANTICIPATE
AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST KS BY SUN NIGHT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION BASED ON THIS TREND AND ALSO TRIMMED MAXES BACK
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

TUE-FRI:

MAIN ISSUES THIS PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA. WITH BOTH GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM MODEL/EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS
MODEL SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN 850MB MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
AND WEAK UPPER TROFFING IN THE WEST-NORTH WEST FLOW. HAVE DOUBTS
MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY TO COMPLETELY CAP
PRECIPITATION AND BELIEVE ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL STILL OCCUR. CURRENT CONSENSUS WAS TO GO DRY ON THE 4TH...BUT
FULLY ANTICIPATE LATER FORECASTS WILL INSERT 20-30 PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION. DID ADD LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR LATER
IN THE WEEK PER CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. FORECAST REFLECTS A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GUESS ON MAXES. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...

BASED ON LATEST TRENDS...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
THRU AT LEAST 18Z...AND POTENTIALLY THRU 00Z TOMORROW. +SHRA/+TSRA
IS MOST LIKELY AT KHUT-KICT AND KCNU WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES AT
KSLN/KRSL. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ON SAT...DO NOT ANTICIPATE QUICK
CLEARING AT ANY LOCATION. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    67  77  66  80 /  90  80  50  50
HUTCHINSON      66  76  65  80 /  70  60  40  30
NEWTON          67  75  65  79 /  90  80  50  40
ELDORADO        68  76  66  78 /  90  80  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  78  68  81 /  90  80  60  60
RUSSELL         63  78  64  82 /  30  30  20  10
GREAT BEND      64  76  64  80 /  40  40  20  10
SALINA          65  78  67  83 /  60  50  40  20
MCPHERSON       66  75  65  81 /  70  60  40  30
COFFEYVILLE     72  79  68  82 /  80  80  70  60
CHANUTE         70  78  67  79 /  90  80  70  60
IOLA            69  77  67  78 /  90  80  70  60
PARSONS-KPPF    70  80  68  80 /  80  80  70  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR KSZ051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1035 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1035 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND ALL
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST WATCH
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1136 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDONIA                37.53N 95.82W
06/29/2007                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HARPER AND DECATUR ROADS IN FREDONIA ARE CLOSED.
            RESIDENTS ARE HAVING TO TAKE ALTERNATE ROUTES IN TO THE
            CITY. WATER IS ALSO BEING REPORTED OVER BETHEL ROAD NEAR
            NESODESHA.

&&

RBL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ELK FALLS               37.37N 96.19W
06/29/2007                   ELK                KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 160 IS CLOSED FROM THE HIGHWAY 99 JUNCTION TO THE
            EASTERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY. IN ADDITION NUMEROUS COUNTY
            ROADS ARE STILL UNDERWATER.

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSZ096-100-292045-
LABETTE-NEOSHO-
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LABETTE AND NEOSHO COUNTIES...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARSONS...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

CARUSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
320 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      FREDONIA                37.53N 95.82W
06/29/2007                   WILSON             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS LEADING IN TO FREDONIA ARE STILL IMPASSABLE.
            IN ADDITION HIGHWAY 400 BETWEEN FREDONIA AND NEODESHA IS
            REPORTED CLOSED.

&&

RBL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
432 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSZ070-292215-
GREENWOOD-
432 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 429 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FALL RIVER...OR 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
EUREKA. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORM DUE TO THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     FLASH FLOOD      DOUGLASS                37.52N 97.01W
06/29/2007                   BUTLER             KS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SANTA FE LAKE ROAD CLOSED FROM 180TH TO 200TH IN THE
            DOUGLASS AREA. A FEW OTHER COUNTY ROADS ARE CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

JMC