Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 291631
FFSICT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSC073-207-291715-
GREENWOOD KS-WOODSON KS-
1128 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR
WOODSON AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 1125 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAD PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH WITH 
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH 
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW 
HOURS...RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS RAINS WILL STILL CAUSE FLOODING 
PROBLEMS.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...RURAL COUNTRY ROADS
AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3760 9651 3760 9597 3773 9596 3772 9552
      3804 9552 3804 9595 3817 9596 3816 9635
      3809 9634 3809 9652

$$

LAWSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL DEPART OUR FORECAST AREA.

TODAY:
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IS SHOWING THE TROF/SHEAR AXIS CONTINUING TO
INVADE AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. LATEST PROFILERS ARE SHOWING THE 850MB FLOW
START VEER OUT SOME AT HILLSBORO...BUT LAMONT HAS SHOWN THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT WITH FLOW NOW OUT OF THE SOUTH. BASED ON
THIS PROFILER AND THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IT APPEARS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BE SHIFTING MORE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
GFS/NAM/RUC ARE ALL SHOWING THIS SHEAR AXIS SHIFTING WESTWARD TODAY.
AS A RESULT...WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES TO THE WEST TO INCLUDE
MARION...SEDGWICK...SEDGWICK...AND SUMNER COUNTIES. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS WAS ALSO SHOWING THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASING ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHICH WILL FAVOR HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS
IS DEFINITELY A TROPICAL AIR MASS ESPECIALLY WITH RAINFALL RATES
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AN HOUR IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE COULD SEE A BREAK
IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IF WE SEE ANY HOLES IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER ROUND OF GULLY WASHERS.

TONIGHT:
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW THE SHEAR AXIS PUSHING EVEN
FURTHER WEST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS...WHILE THE
NAM-WRF/UKMET SOLUTIONS KEEP THE SHEAR AXIS A LITTER FURTHER EAST.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN
305-310K...SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK 850-700MB
FRONTOGENETICAL CONVERGENCE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE AS PRONOUNCED AS IT DOES THIS MORNING. AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES ALONG WITH SUCH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT WE FELT IT PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
THIS TIMEFRAME IS CERTAINLY DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR AXIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME.
THIS WOULD LEAD US TO BELIEVE THAT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE SOME WATER PROBLEMS...SINCE THE MOISTURE REALLY
NEVER LEAVES US. POSITIVE LATENT HEAT FLUX AND CLOUD COVER WILL TEND
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES SO WE TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT:
WE WENT AHEAD AND KEPT POPS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING A WEAK SHEAR AXIS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...WE DID TEND TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES.

COX
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  67  76  68 /  80  60  50  20
HUTCHINSON      76  65  76  68 /  40  40  30  10
NEWTON          74  65  76  67 /  80  60  40  20
ELDORADO        75  66  76  67 /  80  60  50  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  68  76  68 /  80  60  50  30
RUSSELL         82  64  82  68 /  10  10  20  10
GREAT BEND      81  64  81  68 /  10  20  20  10
SALINA          78  65  78  68 /  20  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       76  65  76  67 /  40  30  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     76  67  76  68 /  70  60  40  30
CHANUTE         76  66  76  68 /  70  60  40  20
IOLA            76  66  76  68 /  80  60  40  20
PARSONS-KPPF    76  66  76  68 /  70  60  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
534 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
534 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND ALL
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEE THE LATEST WATCH
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS.

RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE WALNUT...ARKANSAS
...NEOSHO...FALL AND VERDIGRIS TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SEVERAL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS ON SATURDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT ANY STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY REPORTS OF
FLOODING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

COX