Flash Flood Warning 45, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE BAND OF
RAINFALL THAT HAS BEEN TRAINING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PROVIDED THE FLOODING IN THE HOUSTON AREA
EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON BUT A
LARGE FETCH OF CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM EAST TX INTO THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF TROPICAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS
THIS EVENING AND MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z NAM
PROGS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE UPPER TX
COAST TONIGHT. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CWA...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING PERSISTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...WILL
GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 4AM FRIDAY. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
FRIDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF ERIN CONTINUES
TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TX. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SOMEWHAT NORMAL LEVELS FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD
DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INCREASE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK 500MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO EAST TX AND AN INVERTED
500MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS PROGGED TO MOVE WESTWARD.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE INCREASING SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH THE INVERTED 500MB TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH TX TUESDAY. ALL EYES TURN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT
WEEK AS DEAN IS FORECASTED TO BE APPROACHING THE GULF EARLY
TUESDAY. WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT IMPACT DEAN WILL HAVE FOR
SOUTHEAST TX YET IF DEAN MOVES INTO THE GULF. 32
&&

.AVIATION...
THINK HOUSTON TERMINALS WILL CATCH A BREAK FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BUT AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA AROUND SUNRISE. AM
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHRA ON FRIDAY. DUE TO THE RAIN...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF MVFR FOG DEVELOPS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HINTING AT LOW
CIGS AROUND SUNRISE AND THINK THIS IS REASONABLE. CORE RAINS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH SOME
STREAMER SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. SPEED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST
ALSO FAVORS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF PRECIP NEAR THE COAST
AFTER 09Z. 43
&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF ERIN. TIDES ARE STILL 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND
TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. DAYS 5-7 ARE A
WORK IN PROGRESS. IF DEAN ENTERS THE GULF...SWELLS WILL BE HIGHER
AND DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK...WIND/WAVES WILL REQUIRE
TWEAKING. 43
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      77  91  77  92  77 /  60  70  50  50  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  90  77  92  77 /  60  70  50  50  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            81  88  81  90  81 /  60  70  50  50  20
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
     HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20
     NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
AVIATION/MARINE...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
745 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING
LATER TODAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO LAKE
JACKSON RECEIVED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS ERIN
PUSHED ASHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS REMAIN
HIGH TODAY AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRAZORIA...COLORADO...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. ONLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.