Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

000 
WGUS74 KHGX 161803
FFSHGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

TXC039-161845-
BRAZORIA TX-
1255 PM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT FOR
BRAZORIA COUNTY...

AT 1253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...FROM 4 
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER THE WARNED AREA BETWEEN SAN LUIS 
PASS AND IOWA COLONY.  THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE 
AT 1:45 PM.    

FLOODING MAY BE OCCURING IN OR NEAR...
CHOCOLATE BAYOU...LIVERPOOL...IOWA COLONY AND HILLCREST.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7:00 PM.

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY
SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY. THEY WILL
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2918 9506 2951 9534 2943 9548 2914 9521

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING. NHC HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIN.
TROPICAL RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH T.D. ERIN CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AT LEAST 2.5 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AS ERIN CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
WHERE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES AT LEAST 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
HAVE FALLEN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO NEAR 7 INCHES. WILL ADJUST
POPS SLIGHTLY TODAY TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
CURRENT GRIDS/ZONES LOOK FINE. 32
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007/
UPDATE...WILL BE RE-ISSUING PRODUCTS AS TPC/NHC HAS DROPPED ALL
WARNINGS FOR THE TX COASTLINE. WILL KEEP THE HIGH POPS/FFA IN
PLACE THIS AFTN AS THE NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN CONTINUES TO
DRAW DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. 41

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007/
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS A GOOD BET FOR SWRN ZONES OF SE TX
TODAY WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER A WIDER AREA TONIGHT ON
INTO TOMORROW. ERIN STILL SET TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING
NEAR CRP WITH THE BULK OF THE PCPN GOING INLAND BETWEEN GLS/CRP.
ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 WITH ISOLATED 10 AMOUNTS LOOK
REASONABLE ATTM. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THIS SYSTEM OFF TO W/SW WITH
TIME...BUT THE DEEPLY TROPICAL AIRMASS/HIGH PWS (FROM 2.1-2.4)
TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. AS SUCH WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEPERIOD. AND THEN...WITH REGARD TO
THE FFA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OVER THE SW COUNTIES...THIS MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED (BEYOND ITS 00Z EXPIRATION) AND EXPANDED (FOR THE
SRN HALF OF THE CWA) SHOULD THE BANDS FILL IN AS PROGGED. SO FAR
RADAR LOOPS ARE INDICATING THIS TREND. PCPN FORECASTS GOING TO A
MORE DIURNAL TYPE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A WEAK E/SELY LL
FLOW PREVAILS. LONG RANGE PROGS STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE THE PATH
OF DEAN BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT A TUTT LOW WILL BE MOVING UNDER
THE HIGH (SLIGHTLY NORTH/AHEAD OF DEAN) ACROSS THE GULF ON/ABOUT
THIS SAME TIME. A BEAR WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. 41

MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISPLAYING THE BEST NOCTURNAL BLOW-UP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF HER CENTER LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM DUE
SOUTH OF MATAGORDA BAY AT 2 AM. TS ERIN FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND CORPUS CHRISTI BAYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY JUMPED UP TO NEAR 10 FEET AT
BUOY19 WHERE WINDS HAVE GUSTED TO NEAR 50 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD STAY IN PORT ACROSS MATAGORDA BAY AND NEARSHORE WATERS AS
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM. TIDE
LEVELS OVER MATAGORDA BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 FOOT ABOVE
NORMAL. AS NORTHERN THUNDERSTORM BANDS MOVE ACROSS...WIND GUSTS
AOA 50 KNOTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITHIN THESE SQUALLS. AS ERIN
MAKES ITS WAY ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY...THE BACKING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST WINDS AT...OR
ABOVE...15 KNOTS GOING INTO EARLY EVENING. 31

AVIATION...
REASONING FOR THE NUMEROUS TEMPOS IS CHALLENGE OF TIMING TS
ERINS OUTER BANDS AS SHE MAKES A NEAR-CRP LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT VISBIES TO  DROP TO MVFR/MARGINAL IFR WITHIN THE
HEAVIEST +TSRA BANDS...WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH...PREVAILING MVFR
BKN DECKS FOR MAJORITY OF METRO AND NEAR COASTAL HUBS THROUGH
LATE DAY. 31
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      91  77  91  77  92 /  70  70  60  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              89  77  90  77  92 /  90  70  60  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            87  81  88  81  90 /  90  80  60  40  40
&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA...WALLER...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20
     NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GALVESTON BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&

DISCUSSION...32
MARINE/AVIATION...43
MESO...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
745 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-171245-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
745 AM CDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM ERIN MADE LANDFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER INLAND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP GULF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HEATING
LATER TODAY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

AREAS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM EAGLE LAKE TO LAKE
JACKSON RECEIVED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AS ERIN
PUSHED ASHORE. THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS REMAIN
HIGH TODAY AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FLOOD THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BRAZORIA...COLORADO...JACKSON...
MATAGORDA...AND WHARTON COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES FOR THESE LOCATIONS. OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. ONLY MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.