Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
510 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS FOR CENTRAL ZONES THIS EVENING AND
LOWERED POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST. BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY AND AM EXPECTING ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH HEAVY
RAIN. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTN...BRINGING WITH
IT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. OF SOME CONCERN THUS FAR IS THE SLOW-
ER SEWD MOTION OF THIS WHOLE AREA IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. WE MAY
GET A BIT MORE RAIN IN THESE LOCATIONS BEFORE SUNSET...

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST...THINGS REMAIN TRICKY AS PROGS
CONTINUE TO WAFFLE/LACK CONSISTENCY CONCERNING SOME OF THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES. WILL LIKELY KEEP CHC POPS IN THE ZONES FOR A FEW
MORE PERIODS. A LINGERING BOUNDARY OR TWO (FROM TODAYS ACTIVITY)
ALONG WITH HEATING/INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TOMORROW SHOULD PROD-
UCE SOME SCT PCPN IN THE AFTN. FOG/ISO SHRAS IN THE MORNING ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS/COASTAL LOCATIONS TUE AND WED
MORNINGS GIVEN THE DEEP SLY FLOW. THE FCST FOR WED REMAINS QUITE
DIFFICULT AS MODELS STAY DIVIDED - NAM STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE AND
WETTER THAN THE GFS...BRINGING THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE TOWARD THE TX COAST. GFS AIM IS AT THE LA COAST. NOT
A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH THESE SOLUTIONS BUT A MAJORITY IN
THE ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE GFS. AS SUCH WILL KEEP WITH THE 30% POPS
ALREADY IN ON WED. MODELS ALSO FLAKY WITH THE FRONT ON FRI...NOW
BRINGING IT ACROSS SE TX LATER/WEAKER. THE REASON FOR THIS LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER UPPER TROF QUICKLY MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES AND DEEP-
ENING AS IT APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS. SO...WE ARE NOW GIVEN YET
ANOTHER PROMISE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT/TASTE OF FALL FOR THE BEG-
INNING OF NEXT WEEK. 41

MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCEC GOING FOR 20 TO 60 NM WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS STILL RUNNING 15 TO 20 KTS. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE OVER THE WATERS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING
SOMEWHAT. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
LOWERING TO AROUND 10 KTS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WITH SFC TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH OF THAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT/TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY IN
RESPONSE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GET SHEARED OUT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NRN GULF. MEANWHILE SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY/
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY...15 TO 20 KTS AT NIGHT. COULD
SEE SCEC CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN THIS PERIOD. WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS
THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY. ONLY MINIMAL COOLING IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY SO THINK WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FLAGS.  35

AVIATION...
MCS PERSISTS ALONG THE CORRIDOR FROM KLFK-KCXO-KVCT THIS HOUR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AROUND 2KFT...BRIEF VISIBILITIES OF AROUND 1SM
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS ESPECIALLY AT
KCXO...KIAH...KSGR. GOOD COLD POOL DEVELOPING WITH THE MCS WHICH
SHOULD HELP DRIVE IT SOUTH TOWARD THE KHOU/KLBX TERMINALS BY
00Z...THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT THAT POINT. STILL THINK
TSRA WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THINK THERE IS A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH WET GROUND CONDITIONS AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING. MVFR VISIBILITIES APPEAR LIKELY AT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS 09-14Z TUESDAY WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT
RURAL SITES LIKE KCXO/KLBX. THINK THAT STRATUS WILL BE CONFINED TO
FAR NRN AREAS LIKE KCLL/KUTS. SCATTERED CU DECK AROUND 2500 FT WILL
DEVELOP 14-17Z TUESDAY.  35

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      70  86  70  88  72 /  40  40  40  20  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  87  70  87  72 /  80  40  40  30  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            76  85  76  86  78 /  40  30  30  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
613 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-162315-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
613 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS EVENING IN A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE CELL TRAINING
OCCURS...MAINLY ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 59 FROM EDNA TO LIVINGSTON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM COLDSPRING TO HOUSTON TO WHARTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
508 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HUMBLE                  29.99N 95.26W
10/15/2007                   HARRIS             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWN

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DAYTON                  30.05N 94.90W
10/15/2007                   LIBERTY            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

LW