Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
303 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

.UPDATE...
SPC HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 219 THROUGH 04Z. ZONES OUT SHORTLY
WITH THE NEW HEADLINE. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS... CONVECTION HAS HAD A DIFFICULT TIME DEVELOPING TODAY. PER
OUR AFTERNOON DISCUSSION YESTERDAY...MESO-SCALE INFLUENCES SEEM TO
HAVE DELAYED THE ATMOSPHERES ABILITY TO RECHARGE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE IN THE LOWER 80S AND NOW THAT TEMPS ARE 81-83...THE RADAR HAS
BEGUN TO SHOW MORE SIGNS OF LIFE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY OVER THE EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE WEST. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS STILL FAVOR A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. SEE SWOMCD
00665 FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF SE TX ON FRIDAY TO
WARRANT 20 POPS. OTHERWISE A BUILDING RIDGE WILL USHER IN MUCH
WARMER TEMPS AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS SUN-WED. HAVE
BROAD-BRUSHED 20 POPS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS THE DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  88  72  88  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              70  87  71  89  72 /  40  10  10  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  82  74  83  74 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
331 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-042045-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
331 PM CDT THU MAY 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 PM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS...SOME POSSIBLY TORNADIC. SINCE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE RATHER COLD...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BUT DUE TO RELATIVELY FAST
STORM MOTION...EXCESSIVE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION.