Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
334 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CROSSED FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED FURTHER WEST OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO, SOUTHWEST QUEBEC
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THROUGH 8
PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO NEAR 50 NORTH AND ONLY TO
THE MID 60S NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
KEEP ENOUGH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE FRIDAY FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
POSSIBLY SOME WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT EXITS FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRES
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL FAST MOVING SYSTEMS
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THRU A GENERAL WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...TIMING THE SYSTEMS WILL BE
DIFFICULT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A GENERAL
LONG WAVE TROF TRIES TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. BY
MIDWEEK A MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
FLOW DEVELOPS AS MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEMS MOVE THRU THE WESTERLY
FLOW...ONCE AGAIN TIMING WILL BE DIFFICULT. TEMPS WILL MODIFY BY
LATER IN THE WEEK AS WARMER AIR TRIES TO WORK EWD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT...THEN VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AFFECTING PRIMARILY
LEBANON AND CONCORD AIRPORTS. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT QUICKLY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER 13Z.

LONG TERM /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15
KT AT TO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE AT THE ISLES OF SHOALS AND
MATINICUS ROCK C-MAN STATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THESE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND AND WIND WAVES
BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET IN THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT AT THE BUOYS, SO HAVE NOT ISSUED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING THEN AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WINDS TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA THRU MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH MOSTLY HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WHEELER
NEAR TERM...WHEELER
SHORT TERM...WHEELER
LONG TERM...MARINE
AVIATION...
MARINE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-172230-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-
SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-
KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
619 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NHZ001-002-172230-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
619 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NHZ003>010-013-014-172230-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
619 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 608 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
834 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             LOUDON                  43.29N 71.47W
08/16/2007  E1.00 INCH       MERRIMACK          NH   PUBLIC

&&

MC

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