Wind Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 070318
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1018 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

...STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL DIVE SOUTH...ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
TONIGHT...AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
STRONG WIND FIELD WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE LOW...WITH 50 TO
60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...THE
WINDS WILL PICK UP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...GIVING RISE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING INTO SOME OF THE LOWER
VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-070900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0002.070207T0900Z-070207T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1018 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. A
HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY SPREAD
ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES AND LOWER VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW TREES OR POWER
LINES COULD BE TOPPLED.

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-070900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...
SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE
1018 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE STRONG WINDS MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES AND
LOWER VALLEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE TOPPLED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 070503
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1203 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

.AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE OFF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY SUNRISE.
A STRONG WIND FIELD EXISTS SOUTH OF THE LOW...AND WINDS HAVE
ALREADY GUSTED OVER 70 MPH ATOP MOUNT MITCHELL THIS EVENING. AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE
NORTH AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN THE STRONGER WINDS AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS AND PARTS
OF THE LEE SLOPES FROM LAKE LURE AND BLACK MOUNTAIN NORTHWARD.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-071400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0002.070207T0900Z-070207T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.070207T0503Z-070207T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1203 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THE HIGH
WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH 
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW SMALL-SCALE 
AREAS OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. INITIALLY THE STRONG
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PROGRESS...THE STRONG WINDS
WILL LOWER IN ELEVATION.

EVENTUALLY THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AFFECTING AREAS FROM LAKE LURE AND BLACK
MOUNTAIN...NORTH TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...JONAS RIDGE AND AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL BLOW DOWN
TREES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

NCZ053-507-071400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.070207T0503Z-070207T1700Z/
BUNCOMBE-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHEVILLE...LAKE LURE
1203 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH 
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 
SIMILAR SPEEDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW SMALL-SCALE 
AREAS OF EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
INITIALLY THE STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE 
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
PROGRESS...THE STRONG WINDS WILL LOWER IN ELEVATION. 

EVENTUALLY THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE SLOPES OF
THE BLUE RIDGE...AFFECTING AREAS FROM LAKE LURE AND BLACK
MOUNTAIN...NORTH TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...JONAS RIDGE AND AREAS
JUST SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL BLOW DOWN
TREES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>065-509-070900-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
1203 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY. 

WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE TOPPLED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$
MCAVOY

000 
WWUS72 KGSP 070917
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. STRONG WIND FIELDS SOUTH OF THE LOW WILL
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NORTH. 

NCZ048-065-071700-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.EXA.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070207T1700Z/
MADISON-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...HENDERSONVILLE
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SUSTAINED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN 
THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...AND THE SURROUNDING HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH MAY OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE CRAGGY AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. WINDS OF THIS
STRENGTH WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND LIMBS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE. 

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE...INCLUDING THE BLACK MOUNTAIN AREA.
HOWEVER...OCCASIONAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO OCCUR IN
ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...MARSHALL AND VICINITY.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

NCZ052-059-063-064-509-071700-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.070207T0917Z-070207T1700Z/
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING... 
GENERALLY THE AREA SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. DUE TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW TREES OR POWER LINES COULD BE TOPPLED.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

NCZ051-058-062-071700-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-070207T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0014.070207T0917Z-070207T1700Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY.
THE WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS 
OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR. STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY IN 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SMOKIES AND THE NANTAHALA MOUNTAINS. 

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-507-071700-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-070207T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
LAKE LURE
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

SUSTAINED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN 
AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE EASTERN BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT THIS
MORNING. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 60 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH MAY OCCUR... ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND
LIMBS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AFFECTING AREAS FROM LAKE LURE AND OLD
FORT...NORTH TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...JONAS RIDGE AND AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK BY SUNRISE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

$$

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-071700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.LW.Y.0014.070207T0917Z-070207T1700Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE
417 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY. 

SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE 
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. 
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL ALSO OCCUR. 

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
945 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STATOCU/AC WELL DOWNSTREAM OF
CLIPPER ENCROACHING UPON THE MTNS AS EXPECTED. CERTAINLY SOME OF
THIS MOISTURE WILL GET EATEN UP BY THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...BUT OVERALL
LOW-MID LVL MOISTENING SHOULD YIELD THE GOING SKY FCST FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE PIEDMONT AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY IN THE NC MTNS. NO SURPRISES NOTED IN THE LATEST SREF AND
INCOMING 06/12 UTC NAM SOLUTIONS FEATURING INCREASING LAYER RH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACRS NW NC WITHIN THE STRENGTHENING WAA FLOW.
FCST SNDGS STILL SUPPORT LATE DAY LIGHT FROZEN CHANCES ABOVE 3000
FEET WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. 60 KT WESTERLY
85H JET STILL ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS...AND WILL HAVE TO REFINE MTN HIGH WIND THREAT FOR THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. AT THIS JUNCTURE WILL LEAVE HIGH WIND WATCH IN
PLACE AS IS WITH PROGGED 100 KT 50H ISOTACH DIPPING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN NC MTNS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 248 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY...
LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
POTENT SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE MID-MISS VALLEY
AND OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BY 00Z...H10-H5 RH
NEARS 80 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL RETAIN A TOKEN CHANCE POP FOR
VERY LATE IN THE 1ST PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY INCLUDE WINTRY PCPN ALONG THE TN
LINE AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN PARTS OF THE NC MTNS. THE
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A NEARLY 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PCPN ALONG THE TN LINE LATER
TONIGHT...AND HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM MADISON
COUNTY NORTHWARD AS A RESULT. THE PCPN TYPE IS GOING TO BE A TOUGH
CALL...THOUGH THE QPF WILL BE QUITE LIGHT REGARDLESS OF WHAT FALLS.
H8 WARM NOSE LOOKS WEAKER ON TONIGHT/S MODELS...SO I DON/T SEE
NORTHERN MTN VALLEYS WARMING A GREAT DEAL OVERNIGHT. USING THE
UNIVERSAL NOMOGRAM AND A LOCAL P-TYPE ALGORITHM YIELDS SNOW AT
ONSET...TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN IN THE NRN MTNS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH MAINLY RAIN AFTER SUNRISE. LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS...THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE CALL. AGAIN...THERE WON/T
BE A LOT OF PCPN...BUT ROADS COULD BECOME QUITE SLICK IN SPOTS LATE
TONIGHT.

THE SECOND ISSUE TONIGHT IS THAT OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT
DEVELOPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT DROPS ACROSS
WV. THE NAM CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 65+ WESTERLY WIND MAX AT 850MB
ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 UTC. WHILE THE STRONGEST
WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM
ADVECTION...DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AS THE CLIPPER PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION WED MORNING...WEAK COLD
ADVECTION KICKS IN...AND THE FLOW GOES MORE WNW. THIS IS A GOOD FLOW
PATTERN TO GET SOME DAMAGING WINDS IN THE NRN MTNS AND THE LEE
SLOPES...AND THIS IS WHERE I WILL POST THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER ON WED...ESPECIALLY OVER SC AND NE GA
WHERE HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 60. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN THE NRN
TIER WHERE LLVL THICKNESSES ARE LOW AND IN THE WESTERN MTNS WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY. A COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE A LITTLE PCPN BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
LOOK DRY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI THE GFS DEVELOPS A QUICK SHOT OF UPGLIDE
AHEAD OF A STRONG NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. THE NAM IS MUCH WEAKER
WITH THIS FEATURE...AS ARE THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SO I/M QUITE
SKEPTICAL THAT THIS FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE. HOWEVER...I
DID LOWER MAX TEMPS 4 TO 5 DEG ON FRI...CLOSER TO THE MEX
GUIDANCE...AND WENT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. IF THE GFS IS
LATCHING ON TO SOMETHING...PCPN TYPE COULD BE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AFTER FRIDAY TO THE GRIDS.

AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A
VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BEGIN
TO BE GRADUALLY DISPLACED LATER TODAY...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE PERIOD...THEN PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY BY
LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL OMIT GUSTS FROM THE FORECAST ATTM. WINDS
MAY REMAIN GUSTY WELL INTO THE LATE EVENING...AS SURFACE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CSH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1010 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-071100-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1010 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH
POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH CAN DOWN
TREES...CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WILL MAY CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON
ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING
LATE IN THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
FOR THE PURPOSE OF REPORTING WIND DAMAGE.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-071100-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-
541 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WHILE THE
WINDS AT THIS TIME DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DAMAGE...IF
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINDS BECOMES A
LITTLE STRONGER...DAMAGING GUSTS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND A FEW SLICK
SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ROADS AND SIDEWALKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WINDS
SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE
PURPOSE OF REPORTING WIND DAMAGE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-071100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
541 AM EST TUE FEB 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.