Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 112106
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

NCC027-112145-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-070611T2145Z/
CALDWELL NC-
506 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY...

AT 504 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR KINGS CREEK...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOOMER...
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY AT 520 PM EDT
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY AT 540 PM EDT

LAT...LON 3607 8130 3607 8142 3586 8147 3585 8133

$$
LG/RB

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 112139
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
538 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

NCC027-112148-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0097.000000T0000Z-070611T2145Z/
CALDWELL NC-
538 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 545 PM EDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING EARLIER HAS MOVED MOSTLY 
INTO ALEXANDAR COUNTY AND WEAKENED. 

LAT...LON 3607 8130 3607 8142 3586 8147 3585 8133

$$
LG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL REINFORCE A COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN NEAR
NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER TO INITIATE
CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT ARE TAPPING THE VERY UNSTABLE LAPES RATES IN
THE RANGE OF 2-3K J/KG.  LATEST RUC DEPICTS CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE IN
SURFACE STREAMLINE PATTERN EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST GA THROUGH
UPSTATE SC INTO WESTERN NC... VERY CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SO IT
APPEARS WESTERN PORTION OF MOUNTAINS UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT STORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CAUSE STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF MOST
UNSTABLE AIR DRIFT AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTEN PORTION OF
THE PIEDMONT. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... SO LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY WHERE
UPSLOPE IS MOST PRONOUNCED... PRIMARILY WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
500 MB CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA APPEARS TO BE RETROGRADING
SLIGHTLY IN GFS AS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE CENTER AND
APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHEAST WIND AFTER
PASSAGE OF WEAK TROUGH... OR FRONT... CURRENTLY ALONG EASTERN SIDE
OF APPALACHIANS. FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500 MB TROUGH
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WHICH MEANS GREATEST ADVECTIVE CHANGES WILL
OCCUR BEFORE MAXIMUM HEATING.  HOWEVER... COLD AIR POOL WILL BE OVER
CWA DURING AFTERNOON AND HEATING.  SO... PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING LATE MORNING WITH PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE GA/SC COAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BUT START TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND.  NCEP GUIDANCE PREFERS
EUROPEAN MODELS IN THE OUT PERIODS.  THIS KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW AS
SMALL IMPULSES WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST.  DURING MIDWEEK I PREFERRED THE MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A BIAS TO THE DRY SIDE...BASED MORE ON PERSISTENCE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE.  TEMPS WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.  AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...I BECAME MORE RELIANT ON
NCEP SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THUS CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
BKN CLDS AROUND 3K FT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.  CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFT
01Z BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS FOR VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
BELOW 3 MILES BY 09Z WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ESPECIALLY
AVL AND TAF SITES IN WESTEN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.  VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE TO 6 MILES OR GREATER BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 10K FT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY.  RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LOWERED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LGL
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121600-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA... UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... AND THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WAS OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IF THE BREAKS DEVELOP... SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
OCCUR TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF
THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS... MINIMAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             CHESTER                 34.71N 81.21W
06/11/2007  E1.00 INCH       CHESTER            SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN CHESTER.

&&

SGL/GAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
400 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HAIL             5 S GASTONIA            35.18N 81.17W
06/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 5 MILES SOUTH OF GASTONIA.

&&

SGL/GAD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW PICKENS           34.99N 82.83W
06/11/2007                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 TREES DOWN AT CLEO-CHAPMAN HW AND MILL CREEK RD
            NORTHWEST OF PICKENS.

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S PICKENS             34.87N 82.71W
06/11/2007                   PICKENS            SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            1 TREE DOWN AT HW 178 AND KNOLLWOOD HEIGHTS RD JUST SOUTH
            OF PICKENS.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             1 E CENTRAL             34.72N 82.77W
06/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       PICKENS            SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS PENNY SIZED HAIL LASTED FOR ABOUT 10
            MINUTES NEAR CENTRAL.

&&

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

SCZ009-112115-
YORK-
420 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YORK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO YORK...ROCK
  HILL AND CLOVER.

EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL UP TO TWO INCHES
IS POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND ISOLATED
FLOODING OF LOW AREAS.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

SCZ006-112130-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
424 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GREENVILLE COUNTY THROUGH 530 PM
EDT...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PIEDMONT...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

KRENTZ