Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL REINFORCE A COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN NEAR
NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
SUFFICIENT HEATING HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE CLOUD COVER TO INITIATE
CONVECTIVE STORMS THAT ARE TAPPING THE VERY UNSTABLE LAPES RATES IN
THE RANGE OF 2-3K J/KG.  LATEST RUC DEPICTS CONFLUENT ASYMPTOTE IN
SURFACE STREAMLINE PATTERN EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST GA THROUGH
UPSTATE SC INTO WESTERN NC... VERY CLOSE TO THE BLUE RIDGE
ESCARPMENT. MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS TO THE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SO IT
APPEARS WESTERN PORTION OF MOUNTAINS UNLIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
SIGNIFICANT STORMS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL CAUSE STORMS TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF MOST
UNSTABLE AIR DRIFT AWAY FROM MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTEN PORTION OF
THE PIEDMONT. WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING... CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT... SO LINGERING SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY WHERE
UPSLOPE IS MOST PRONOUNCED... PRIMARILY WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
FOOTHILLS INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
500 MB CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA APPEARS TO BE RETROGRADING
SLIGHTLY IN GFS AS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE CENTER AND
APPROACHES THE CWA FROM THE NORTH TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW TO CONTINUE BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY NORTHEAST WIND AFTER
PASSAGE OF WEAK TROUGH... OR FRONT... CURRENTLY ALONG EASTERN SIDE
OF APPALACHIANS. FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500 MB TROUGH
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TOMORROW. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WHICH MEANS GREATEST ADVECTIVE CHANGES WILL
OCCUR BEFORE MAXIMUM HEATING.  HOWEVER... COLD AIR POOL WILL BE OVER
CWA DURING AFTERNOON AND HEATING.  SO... PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING LATE MORNING WITH PULSE-TYPE
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE GA/SC COAST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.  MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK BUT START TO DIVERGE BY THE WEEKEND.  NCEP GUIDANCE PREFERS
EUROPEAN MODELS IN THE OUT PERIODS.  THIS KEEPS A NORTHERLY FLOW AS
SMALL IMPULSES WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND ENHANCES CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST.  DURING MIDWEEK I PREFERRED THE MAV
GUIDANCE WITH A BIAS TO THE DRY SIDE...BASED MORE ON PERSISTENCE
THAN ANYTHING ELSE.  TEMPS WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MET AND
MAV.  AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND...I BECAME MORE RELIANT ON
NCEP SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK AXIS OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN UPSLOPE FLOW
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THUS CONTRIBUTING TO SCT TO
BKN CLDS AROUND 3K FT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.  CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFT
01Z BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTS FOR VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
BELOW 3 MILES BY 09Z WITH ISOLATED CEILINGS BELOW 1K FEET ESPECIALLY
AVL AND TAF SITES IN WESTEN PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.  VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE TO 6 MILES OR GREATER BY 15Z TUESDAY WITH CEILINGS AT OR
ABOVE 10K FT.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL
CONTINUE A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT WILL ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA TO FUEL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SATURDAY.  RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES
WITH ATTENDANT STRONG AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LOWERED LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IN STRATUS AND FOG.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...LGL
LONG TERM...VAD
AVIATION...LGL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ057-071-072-082-SCZ001>014-019-122045-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
445 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 380 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-068>070-501>510-122045-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
445 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
552 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

SCZ007>009-012>014-112245-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
552 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHEROKEE...CHESTER...
   LAURENS...SPARTANBURG...UNION AND YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM
   EDT...

AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM ENOREE...THROUGH GAFFNEY INTO HICKORY
GROVE MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODRUFF...
  UNION...SHARON...SEDALIA...SARATT...PAULINE...PACOLET MILLS...
  PACOLET...MONARCH MILLS...MCCONNELLS...LOWRYS...LOCKHART...LEEDS...
  JONESVILLE...ENOREE...CROSS KEYS...CROSS ANCHOR...CORNWELL...
  CLINTON...CHESTER...CARLISLE...BULLOCK CREEK...BUFFALO...BLACKSTOCK
  AND ADAMSBURG.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW ELBERTON           34.16N 82.93W
06/11/2007                   ELBERT             GA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            METAL ROOF BLOWN OFF BUILDING

&&

DICARLO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             8 SW TAYLORSVILLE       35.84N 81.28W
06/11/2007  E0.88 INCH       ALEXANDER          NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
614 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HAIL             2 N HICKORY             35.77N 81.33W
06/11/2007  E0.75 INCH       CATAWBA            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     HAIL             11 NE LENOIR            36.02N 81.40W
06/11/2007  E1.25 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS THAT QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
            FELL IN EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY ALONG PICTURESQUE LANE.

&&

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0521 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOWNDESVILLE            34.21N 82.65W
06/11/2007                   ABBEVILLE          SC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            2 TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF LOWNDESVILLE...AND ANOTHER
            TREE WITH ITS TOP BLOWN DOWN OUTSIDE OF THE CITY.

&&

BSH