Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WWUS52 KGSP 081908
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCC089-149-081945-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-070608T1945Z/
HENDERSON NC-POLK NC-
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR POLK AND EAST CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTIES...

AT 259 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  COLUMBUS AND TRYON BY 315 PM EDT...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 3539 8238 3536 8211 3525 8197 3519 8197
      3519 8203 3520 8204 3520 8230 3519 8231
      3522 8241 3524 8243

$$

SBK/SGL/GAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
218 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING...AND
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WASH OUT TO OUR SOUTH BY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE
OF A RATHER VIGOROUS...BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS MAY BE THE
ONLY ARGUMENT IN FAVOR OF BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON THAN WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVELS REMAIN
RATHER NON-CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTION...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE IN THE H5 TEMP FIELD ANALYZED THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. WITH RATHER DEEP (ALBEIT WEAK) WESTERLY FLOW...
WOULD EXPECT A LEE TROUGH TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL BE
TO OUR WEST...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MISS VALLEY
MCS...AND TO OUR EAST AS PIEDMONT TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.

REGARDING THE MCS...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
ABSENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THIS MCS WILL BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
BUOYANCY. THEREFORE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY...AND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE
ATM BEGINS TO STABILIZE AROUND SUNSET. WE WILL BASICALLY MAINTAIN
POPS AS IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT BASED ON WHAT WE/RE
SEEING IN THE DATA...WE/RE BECOMING DISCOURAGED REGARDING PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OUTSIDE THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ON SATURDAY...INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY LAY EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL KEEP IT NEAR ENOUGH TO PROBABLY PROVIDE SOME SORT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR WEAK FORCING. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SHORT WAVE
IS FORECAST TO FALL DOWN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST. IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT MODERATE
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWN BY THE MODELS. WITH THAT IN
MIND...HAVE BUMPED UP CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK INTO THE LOWER PART OF
THE CHANCE RANGE...FAVORING THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH
FIGURES TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DYING BOUNDARY. ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD DECAY QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD. A LACK OF UPPER
FORCING COMBINED WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES SHOULD PUT A
CRIMP IN ANY PRECIP CHANCES...SO THE FORECAST WILL BE KEPT DRY FOR
THE MOST PART. THIS SHOULD ALSO KNOCK A CATEGORY OR SO OFF THE MAX
TEMPS COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT HAVE RAISED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OMEGA BLOCK IS FCST TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ANOTHER OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE STALLED OUT OLD FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LINGER NEAR THE
GULF COAST WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO ITS NORTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME IN A BIT WARMER FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DESPITE LOW LVL ELY FLOW AND A LARGE SFC HIGH
THAT WILL ORIGINATE FROM CANADA PARKED OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES.
APPARENTLY LOW LVL THICKNESSES WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 2-4 DEG F
ABOVE AVG.

THE BNDRY BEGINS TO ADVANCE N TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE
CWFA WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE LATEST MEXMOS AND HPC GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASING POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE BNDRY STALLS OUT
OVER THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED THE POP GRIDS UP TOWARD THESE
VALUES...BUT STILL 20-30 PCT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN NEAR TERM AVIATION CONCERN IS WITH THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION IS
ALREADY FIRING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MTNS AND IN THE LEE
TROUGH...AS ATM HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. WE HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS IN THE KAVL AND KHKY TAFS...AND WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
ADDING A TEMPO TO KAVL IN SHORT ORDER. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE LIMITED
THE CONVECTIVE MENTION TO A CB CLOUD GROUP AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. OTHERWISE...
THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR FOG TOMORROW
MORNING...ESP AT KAVL.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS THAN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NO SIG AVIATION WEATHER
IMPACTS EXPECTED.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-090815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
414 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OVER THE PIEDMONT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED...BUT THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ONE OR TWO COULD
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCZ053-081900-
BUNCOMBE-
201 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM
EDT...

AT 156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEAVERVILLE TO 5
MILES NORTH OF CANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WEAVERVILLE BY 215 PM EDT.
  WOODFIN BY 230 PM EDT.
  UNC ASHEVILLE BY 245 PM EDT.
  DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE BY 250 PM EDT.
  ASHEVILLE MALL BY 255 PM EDT.
  BILTMORE FOREST BY 300 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

KRENTZ