Severe Thunderstorm Warning 401, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN
SUNDAY...BECOME STATIONARY...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN NC MTNS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH SOME PULSING TO SEVERE LIMITS. THE WESTERN UPSTATE AND
NE GA COUNTIES WILL LIKELY HAVE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. LIKE YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...UPSLOPE SELY
FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS SWLY BY 6Z. SO CONVECTION SHOULD END FOR THE
MOST PART BY MIDNIGHT. DID HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHC ACROSS THE MTNS FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. MIN TEMPS WERE A PERSISTENCE FCST.

SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS
LAST FEW DAYS. WENT CLOSE TO MAV NUMBERS ON MAX TEMPS (UPPER 90S).
WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO ONLY MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE 100-104 FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE HOURS DURING THE AFTN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SFC RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER OFFSHORE...SO LOW LVL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED
TO TURN SELY AS IT DID TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASS...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LOOKS SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED THE
LAST TWO DAYS. SO KEPT POP AT SLIGHT CHC PIEDMONT...WITH LOW-END CHC
OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEIGHTS FALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
BUILD A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST. THESE WAVES...ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THAN
WE HAVE HAD THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THAT SAID...CONVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD STILL BE MORE DIURNAL IN NATURE AS GFS IS APPEARS TO
HAVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. LOWS STILL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT.

SFC FNT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
REMAINING ACROSS THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION AGAIN WITH BEST CHC OVER THE WEST WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONVERGE. EVEN WITH THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND
EXPECTED PRECIP...HIGHS SUNDAY STILL QUITE WARM...INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND 80S MTNS.

SINCE FORCING STILL ONGOING...SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST POP NORTH AND WEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRONT STALLS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN WITH HIGHS FALLING CLOSER...BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE HAS ONE LAST HURRAH ON TUE BEFORE RETROGRADING WELL WEST
OF THE AREA BY FRI. TROF BUILDS OVER THE EAST WED AND REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH FRI. OPS MDLS AND ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST...SO HOPEFULLY A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN
STORE. AT THE SURFACE DECAYING FRONT WASHES OUT ON TUE LEAVING A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA THRU WED. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES ON THURSDAY AND MOVES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE
RESULT IS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TUE THRU THU NITE. BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS WILL BE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NC
MTNS...AND TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE. EXPECT BEST COVERAGE
OVER MTNS AND W UPSLOPE AREAS SO CB CLOUDS MENTIONED AT KAVL AND
KAND INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SITES GET SOME
RAIN THIS AFTN...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHC OF FOG. FOR
NOW...ONLY HAVE BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 TO 6SM BR IN VSBY NEAR SUNRISE

LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY SO
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN-EVE CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     037-057-069>072-082.
     AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501>510-252000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035-056-SCZ001>014-019-252000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF
THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWN POURS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS ON
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ036-037-057-069>072-082-252000-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
349 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWN POURS CAN OCCUR WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CULLOWHEE               35.31N 83.18W
08/24/2007                   JACKSON            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURENS                 34.50N 82.03W
08/24/2007                   LAURENS            SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN.

0340 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GREENVILLE              34.84N 82.37W
08/24/2007                   GREENVILLE         SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            POWER POLE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
415 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             TAYLORS                 34.92N 82.31W
08/24/2007  E0.75 INCH       GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON WADE HAMPTON ROAD. ALSO...DIME SIZE
            HAIL REPORTED 5E GREENVILLE AT 1612 EDT.

&&

KRENTZ