Severe Thunderstorm Warning 387, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TODAY AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BECOME STATIONARY...AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY (1430Z) SHOWS SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS CLOUDS
FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
CUMULUS SHOULD START TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTN...AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES. THE 06Z GFS AND NAM BOTH BACKED OFF ON POP.
HOWEVER...CAPES ARE STILL FCST TO BE 2000+ J/KG OVER THE PIEDMONT
AND 3000+ J/KG OVER THE CENTRAL NC MOUNTAINS. AS LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE EAST COAST...WINDS BECOME SELY. THERE WILL
MOSTLY LIKELY BE SOME UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WHICH WILL HELP SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LVL
MOISTURE IS AS AT LEAST AS GOOD AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL
BE EVEN LESS SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT. SO GOING POP FCST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SEEMS GOOD. ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY GIVEN THE HIGH INSTABILITY. LOW LVL THICKNESSES AND
SKY COVER SUGGEST PERSISTENCE SO LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S PIEDMONT...80S TO LOW 90S MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE SHORT TERM WILL BEGIN WITH ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES ON SAT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE STAYS OVER THE
REGION...ALBEIT DISPLACED TO THE EAST. 1000-850 THICKNESS SUPPORTS
THE MAV NUMBERS WHICH ARE THE HIGHEST OF THE MOS GUIDANCE SUITE. I
DID TRIM THE ADJUSTED MAV NUMBERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING CLOSE TO A CATEGORY WARMER. THIS RESULTED IN A MAX TEMP GRID
FEATURING MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX
OUT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON AS A DEEP MIXING LAYER DEVELOPS. THIS
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
(105). LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT. CONVECTIVE CHANCES LOOK BEST IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
CAPES POOL TO CLOSE TO 2000J ALONG WITH A WEAK UPSLOPE WIND
COMPONENT. SHOULD BE SCATTERD COVERAGE POSSIBLY DRIFTING OFF THE
ESCARPMENT INTO THE FOOTHILLS. SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE MORE
INTERESTING AS UPPER AIR RIDGE IS FORCED OFF THE COAST DUE TO A
SHORT WAVE DIGGING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS HEIGHTS LOWER AND
A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY SLIPS INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THIS CREATES A
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE PROBABLY SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE
ESCARPMENT. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PROVIDE EVEN BETTER COVERAGE
OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND NE GA. POP GRID
FOR SUN AFTERNOON FEATURES HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...TRENDING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN MON AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST AS SHORT WAVE EXITS OFF THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK SHORT MOVING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH WEAK DIFLUENCE ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOLID SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SE TUE
INTO WED...BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE
LEVELS OF THE RECENT PAST...SO HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY BE
ABOUT A CATEGORY AT BEST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 00Z MEX GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THIS CONCLUSION. DIURNAL...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE AROUND TUE/WED AFTERNOONS...FAVORING THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 00Z
GFS SHOWS A SOMEWHAT PROMISING PATTERN CHANGE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AS
IT DEVELOPS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE
SURFACE...THE MODEL BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
THU WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. DID NOT MAKE ANY SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS FORECAST WAS ALREADY TRENDING AS DESCRIBED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SE UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS THIS AFTN AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE...SO LOOKING FOR AT LEAST ISOLD CONVECTION. EXPECT BEST
COVERAGE OVER MTNS AND W UPSLOPE AREAS SO CB CLOUDS MENTIONED AT
KAVL AND KAND.

LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SUNDAY SO
EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF AFTN-EVE CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...ESPECIALLY MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     037-057-069>072-082.
     AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ037.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...ARK/RB
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...ARK/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-068-501>510-251400-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035-056-SCZ001>014-019-251400-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWN POURS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ036-057-069>072-082-251400-
IREDELL-ROWAN-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWN POURS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ037-251400-
DAVIE-
957 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY DOWN POURS AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AROUND 100 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   AIR QUALITY ACTION DAY.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW ONE HUNDREDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1104 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E MORGANTON           35.74N 81.64W
08/23/2007                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A HALF DOZEN TREES BLOWN DOWN BETWEEN MORGANTON AND
            DREXEL.

&&

JEFFT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NCZ063-241730-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-
100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH
130 PM EDT...

AT 1258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF CASHIERS...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
WALHALLA. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN JACKSON COUNTY...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM. RAIN WILL ALSO FALL AT THE RATE OF ONE AND ONE HALF INCH PER
HOUR.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES.
AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF
SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

GAZ017-241745-
HABERSHAM-
113 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY
THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BATESVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLARKESVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN HABERSHAM COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

BATESVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NCZ064-241815-
TRANSYLVANIA-
120 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 115 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROSMAN...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

ROSMAN...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

GAZ010-SCZ001-241830-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-
128 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN RABUN AND NORTHERN
OCONEE COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINE MOUNTAIN...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF CLAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN RABUN AND NORTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

PINE MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN REST...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

NCZ052-241845-
HAYWOOD-
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
245 PM EDT...

AT 136 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

WAYNESVILLE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE